You are correct in terms of fundamental analysis, however, you are missing one key factor that differentiates this market from traditional stock/forex markets as you mentioned in your experience. There is ample exuberance in this market as proven time and time again. Just as you think it is about to end, a bullish run hits your right where you least expect it (I got burned when the market "crashed" from 11k-9k as I, just like you was expecting the same thing). Be careful my friend, this isn't your typical market.