Bitcoin [BTC] - Update 31/03/2018

Once the price breaks out of the triangle, we will know the future. And yes, it can go down, but I am still thinking the momentum, the technicals as well as the fundamentals favour the upside. I do have a bullish preference, so I am not entirely objective. Let me just say therefore that if we break down (below 6K), I think we will go down a lot. Not 5, not even 4 but all the way to 3K or even lower. It is not my #1 interpretation but yes, it exists.

The point is not that this chart predicts the future (they never do) but it indicated the importance of the coming few days. There are two counts towards the apex. One says we just reached bottom, the other says we will go down one more time. I have a slight favour for the latter. I think we might want to have a (bull) wick touching 6K again. Of course, that doesn't make it easier to decide in time if it's a wick or a crash. That's why it's called speculation: no guarantees, no certainties.

It is up to you to decide which one (if any) you favour or if you see alternatives.

Scenario 1: no more dipping below 6.950

Scenario 2: one more dip, possibly with a very short wick to 6K. The wick cannot be longer than a few hours, preferably even less.

Full disclosure: I sold everything at 7.5 and bought back at 6.6. I was going to hold out for 6.1 but I lost my nerve.

And of course, as always, for the little rays of sunshine here:
This information is for educational purposes and is not a investment recommendation nor to be representative of professional expertise, but to be used as a forum for opening discussions around trading. All examples and analysis used are for illustration purposes only, and of the personal opinions of the author. All examples and analysis are intended for these purposes and should not be considered as specific investment advice. The risk of loss in trading in crypto currencies can be substantial. If you want to know what to do, you need to ask your mother. For predictions of the future, consult a psychic.