Bitcoin Quick Look - What to Expect the Next Few Days [simple TA]

Writing of Analysis: 17:50 UTC

At this time, Bitcoin is chopping along $6500ish, after it has been rejected at the $6700 area through a clear reversal candle (22nd of September). This new swing high reinforced an area that has been a resistance in the past, as well as a small consolidation area.

We did drop a bit, now we are taking a breather close to $6500, which is a minor relevant area: previous minor swing high + some candle opening/close in the recent past. Also note that the 34EMA is close to our current levels, albeit it is flattening.

Let's take a closer look at $6500:

It's not looking good. We have a combo. The swing back up got stopped by:

1. A range that previously proved to work as resistance
2. THREE EMAs that are overlapping a and have actually built a small gap toward downtrending
3. Weak candles. A dragonfly doji acted more as a bearish hanging man, and 24hrs later, the retest brought a lower high in the form of a gravestone.

We may have yet to see the swing confirmation, but sufficient evidence points towards going back down to previous low ($6350ish) and (likely) just drop straight to the large support area of $6-6.2k. Maybe the weekly 89 EMA (purple horizontal) will bounce us once again. I'll actually go deeper into this later on a higher timeframe analysis. That line has proved a saviour in the past several weeks, but no support can bounce you back up forever.

Personally, I took a short position at $6500, and intend to ride it all the way down to support. Stop-loss just above daily high, which provides massive value. And if I get stopped out, I can just enter at the next reversal candle. I think we're gonna visit $6200 again regardless.

Next post I intend to do an analysis on the broader perspective, using the weekly chart. Cheers!