Bitcoin and volatility

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Lets take a moment to discuss Bitcoin volatility. One of the big things I tend to hear is how volatile Bitcoin is, yet the average daily volatility is just under 5%. the most volatile currency pair in Forex trading is the GBPAUD pair at 1.2% daily over the last year. This may seem like a large difference to the untrained eye but you'd be forgetting that Forex traders can trade at up to 50:1 margin in the USA and as high as 300:1 or higher in other parts of the world. Taking that into account that's a change of 60% or more daily. Granted places like Poloniex and Bitfinex allow you to trade BTC on margin as well but only at 3.33:1 on Bitfinex and 2.5:1 on Poloniex equaling 16.65% and 12.5% daily volatility respectively. So for a trader the volatility is in practice less then the most volatile forex pair. In case you're wondering the least volatile forex pair is the EURCHF at 0.54% Daily which still comes to 27% after margin in the USA, double that of Poloniex BTC volatility after margin.

Whats my point? volatility is a matter of perspective, most do not realize the volatility of their own USD in america. Yes Bitcoin is still quite volatile for the average joe, but for me I have had the vary large majority of my liquid wealth in crypto for well over 4 years now. Bitcoin has become my main currency, and honestly I have not noticed much of a change from the USD. I stopped watching my balance a long time ago. I completely understand that for the general population this would make budgeting very hard. For those tracking every penny made to keep bills paid I don't suggest converting to BTC as your primary currency. I'm only trying to bring attention to the fact that BTC isn't as volatile as it would seem. It is still a speculative market and a long hold asset.

If you watch the price daily thinking you're going to buy low and sell high you likely drive yourself mad. I know I went through the roller coaster of emotions when I first invested. Once I stopped trying to ride waves and saw dips as bitcoin going on sale life got easier. I'll say here what I have said to so many in person that asked me for advice, Invest in bitcoin or other crypto what you are not afraid to lose. What I mean is, if you woke up tomorrow and bitcoin was dead the money lost would not destroy your life. I suggest this because if you do that today and bitcoin dies tomorrow you lost some money and you move on with your life, but what do you stand to gain for that loss? $10k BTC? $100K BTC? maybe even $1mil BTC some day? one of the things they teach you in forex in risk vs reward and its plain to see that the reward is so much greater then the risk on this one.

Continue to contribute to your 401K, max out your IRA every year, and once you've done that and still want a place to invest, then look to bitcoin. I don't like giving suggestions on investments, it doesn't sit right with me. I believe in BTC though, and I believe in what it could be. Do your research, decide for yourself if BTC is right for you, it is for me and I'm in it for the long haul. Volatility doesn't make a difference when the average direction is up and your investments have time to mature.

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