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RE: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

in #bitcoin5 years ago (edited)

I must confess I am increasingly aware I misinterpreted the intention of your OP. Honestly, given your demonstrated acuity, which I am unaccustomed to, I am not particularly surprised, but also note that to my credit this does not affect my considerations of your work.

"Perhaps you could state some scenarios and I will attempt to respond to each in detail."

I am incompetent to do so, and this is the core of my thesis: we can essay to consider the known unknowns, but the unknown unknowns are lurking in the outer darkness to lay waste to all our hopes and dreams nonetheless.

"Totally destroyed the future of Western civilization."

One of the central pillars of the free market is that fraud is not payable. In the aftermath of the meltdown coming, it will be all but impossible to claim this phase of that event is not utterly fraudulent. Market disruption that will be, but the West is plenty skookum to weather such a gale if it's overlords so desire. My fear is what they actually do desire, as it's not desirable from the standpoint of the common man, which is grossly apparent from the machinations undertaken to drive us there.

"I could elaborate extensively on why influential actors have no economic degrees-of-freedom to deviate from the Nash equilibrium."

A substantial part of my thesis is that folks apparently influential aren't all those influential. A significant actor may well presently be herding sheep in Kazakhstan. Eight years prior to the beginning of the Mongol Conquest Temuchin was not a powermonger, but an inconsequential shepherd stinking up the steppes.

What data is consequential is yet ineffable, as is the identity of the individual butterfly that flapped up Katrina.

"Proof-of-work is decentralized and thus very difficult to disrupt."

I refer you to USG warnings that the national electrical grid is susceptible to utter destruction by ~a dozen dedicated insurgents, which would effectively eliminate that PoW.

"Apologies if my prior post came across as hubris. I’m just a bit frustrated with not being able to impart all the details I what I have formulated in my mind (due to lacking time to communicate and apparently the volume of communication which would be required) and then being dismissed with the typical mayonnaise logic of “everything is random” so it is hopeless to try to unveil deterministic chaos."

I apologize in turn for dismissal of the estimable achievement in rational understanding you have undertaken with no little success with such drivel. I am incompetent to convey better that nothing is actually random, but that we are curious monkeys with gleams of understanding in our eyes rather than colossi striding across the galactic void wielding power in one hand and wisdom in the other. Don't feel bad I accused you of hubris, because no one is more accused of that by me than me, and no one has more reason to be humble than I.

I cannot fully express my gratitude that men like you exist today, apparently thirsting for criticism they yearn to be improved by, not sticking to their guns no matter what, but neither abandoning them until certainty they should convinces them. Right or wrong, that's the right road to reason.

Thanks!

Edit:

"Again I reiterate my point that Bitcoin as a functioning blockchain has only existed for a decade thus far and probably less than a decade more to go before the completion of the critical (de-)adoption/maturation phase of Bitcoin’s role in the world domination plan I have posited."

I reckon BTC is likely, as you yourself point out, to be part of larger plans stretching further back in time than BTC itself.

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One of the central pillars of the free market is that fraud is not payable.

Fraud is a free market activity. Survival of the fittest. Define fraud? Successful societies require property rights and cooperation. To the extent that fraud destroys those facets, it may be deleterious, yet it could also be beneficial by destroying a society which is itself a fraud— which is how I would described Western civilization today. The coming fraud free-for-all is a free market creative destruction phenomenon.

A significant actor may well presently be herding sheep in Kazakhstan.

Or writing this message from a $300/mo rental house in Mindanao. Who formerly wrote million user adopted software from a Nipa Hut in the 1990s. Which prompted the Jews to come around offering to buy the venture in exchange for soon-to-be worth-less stock options.

What data is consequential is yet ineffable, as is the identity of the individual butterfly that flapped up Katrina.

But I already explained I do not think there is enough time for any butterfly effect to overcome the juggernaut inertia for what is coming on May 14, 2020. Of the ~10 million Bitcoins whose private keys are not lost, ~7 million are stored in “anyone can spend” SegWit addresses. If you don’t understand the myriad of details I have written in my (some now deleted) archives, then you would not share my holistic perspective.

"Proof-of-work is decentralized and thus very difficult to disrupt."

I refer you to USG warnings that the national electrical grid is susceptible to utter destruction by ~a dozen dedicated insurgents, which would effectively eliminate that PoW.

PoW difficulty scales to any level of systemic hashrate. Even one remaining miner running off of micro hydropower in some remote place in a rural area can sustain PoW.

The likelihood of knocking out all electrical power for the entire world (or even for the entire USA) is absolutely zero. Even an asteroid impact could not do that. Humans are ingenuous. There are so many ways to generate electricity. And with Bitcoin’s 10 minute block period, even shortwave radio can be employed for communication between mining nodes.

I appreciate the depth of research and understanding you have invested in your work. I cannot denigrate that at all, and have no interest in doing so. However, I am trying hard not to, with your claim that shortwave could support $1M BTC by 2021.

I have learned a great deal from our discussion, and looking into the links provided.

Thanks!

Edit: earlier in the discussion you pointed out the difficulty of predicting with near total accuracy left you vulnerable. I agree, and this strongly recommends diversification. That recommendation is why I responded to begin with, but became so distracted by the wealth of information you delivered that I failed to mention it.

All investments bear risk. Diversify your investments so that you preserve some capital if some of them go bad and you lose all the capital invested in them.

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