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RE: What's Ether Worth? A Probabilistic Valuation
Thanks for this very high quality post.
I am keen to know how you arrived at a 1 in 5 chance of Ethereum remaining DBAP in 5 years?
Thanks for this very high quality post.
I am keen to know how you arrived at a 1 in 5 chance of Ethereum remaining DBAP in 5 years?
The sections "developers love it" through "shift to proof of stake" are trying to tease this out. In a nutshell, Ethereum is in an optimal position to stay the DBAP but its a challenging goal. I think the 1/5 is a somewhat conservative estimate there.
Yeah, I saw that you were trying to bring together an idea of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, but it just seemed highly speculative to attempt to actually quantify that.
I'm not really criticising. I thought the article was very good.
You're right - this is a very speculative analysis. I think the factors that I point out to justify the probabilities are the most interesting aspects here.