Market Musing 3-21, Fed Rate Hike Coming, Crypto's Rising, High Volatility Trading and Hedging
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https://s3.amazonaws.com/cherry-picks-s3-bucket-newsletter/live/18_03_20_tastytrade_Research.pdf?mc_cid=bb1e86631b&mc_eid=e9e24bad07
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/wdis-options-101/episodes/brittanys-story-01-03-2017High Volatility!: VIX > 18, Monday’s selloff was perhaps related to Facebook User Privacy Issues. All eyes are on the Fed announcement this week. Personally, I will have my position and portfolio hedges on before the announcement on Wednesday afternoon. Risk Twist Spreads for the Quarterly Hedge, Dr Ted Nukes SPX Put Ratio for a 3 week hedge and 2v4 Week RUT calendar for 6-10 day hedge, and SPY, IWM, QQQ Long Puts for a few days hedge.
E-currencies vs US Dollar: Bitcoin is still range bound between $7,500 and $12,000. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Steem are rising. This is a traders environment, where you can buy a small positions and take profits quickly. Why did Goldman Sach’s Circle buy Crypto Currency Brokerage Poloniex? Quote from the attached article: “The long-term view is that every form of value on the planet will become a crypto token. We want to offer more markets, more assets, we want to localize it, and launch it in more international markets and, critically, we need to work with the most important regulators. ” Are you mining cryptos in private wallets yet? US Dollar is still range bound between 88.25 and 91.
https://www.coinbase.com/charts?locale=en-US
https://news.bitcoin.com/circle-goes-on-a-hiring-spree-to-improve-service-at-poloniexFed Rate Hike vs Weakening Economy: Watch for the markets to crap out as Powell talks after the Fed Rate Hike Wednesday at 2pm. GDPNOW is already showing a slowing 1Q GDP of just 1.8%!! An amazing drop from 5.4% forecast just 6 weeks ago. Yes, high interest rates hurts Housing and Consumer Buying. Please have your hedges on before the rate hike.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdfTRADE Log: VIX > 19 High High Volatility Trades are back
- Long GOLD, BITCOIN
- Jade Lizards, Broken Wing Butterfly, Dynamic Iron Condors
- Buy IWM, SPX, IWM Puts before Fed Rate Hike and Powell’s first Speech
- Risk Twist Hedges
Videos:
Theotrade:These Patterns Forecast Increasing Volatility
Thanks for sharing the quote from the Goldman article about the long term view of every asset being backed by tokens. This is very interesting. I like how you're long gold, me too! With your three week hedges, how much do you stand to gain % wise?
Depends on how much the markets fall in that time frame. Last year in a the 12 month bullish trend, this /ES Futures Put Ratio Spread worked 17 times or 100%. You receive a credit as you enter this trade. Position your breakeven below market support for the next 3 weeks. This year, these dips have been more rewarding, but adjustments were required to avoid losses. I am waiting with baited breath to do the same options strategies on bitcoin and other cryptos. The extreme volatility should generate a lot of cashflow.
Very interesting how volatility you see as generating consistent cash flow. I have several LEAP put options on the market. Problem is I bought them when the DOW was at 22,000. But the strike is one year out from now at 19,200, so anything less than that not including my premium is profit!
jfitmisc, I trade in several time frames. Got away from leaps in this choppy market in 2018.
Here is the email update I sent to my followers, I forgot steem. Very Profitable signal at 5am in the morning.
Market Chop is the word for 2018. Unlike 2017 straight up market. Wonder if we retest February lows.
In 2018, when VIX and /VX go into backwardation (happened this morning), I am using for a bearish signal. Will put on hedges immediately or increase what I already have on. Look at VIXCENTRAL.com Picture below.
Fed Rate Hikes in 2018, think Short Utilities, Real Estate and perhaps Consumer stuff like Autos..
My new idea on a hedge: Testing bearish Call Diagonal for credit in /ES Futures options this morning. This is a short hedge. Of course I may just buy some puts too or sell some SPX/RUT Put Ratio Spread when market opens today.
Nice Gold move today as the Dollar collapsed after Fed Rate Hike and Powell New Conference.. Sold a 127.5 (1) vs 130 (-2) Call Ratio over the top of half my GLD today. Got a small credit, but if GLD hits 130 by 4-20 expiration could make an additional $2.5 credit per GLD share. Or worst case, call away my 1/2 of my GLD at 130.. but still get $2.5 credit per share in the upside move process. My suspicion is with war on the Dollar - Crypto, Yaun/Oil Market in China, and Tariffs will continue to put downward pressure no US Dollar.
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