BITCOIN Conservative target Calculations for this Bull Run based on Total Market Cap projections

in #bitcoin15 days ago

Yesterday I was talking on BITCOIN about reaching the famous GOLDEN CROSS by February 17th which would confirm the BULLISH TREND on the Crypto King but, actually I have just checked the Whole Crypto Market Cap and the vision is really stunning there:

ruv1n3.png

Today, the two most important Moving averages of the Daily Chart, the 50 Day MA and the 200 Day MA, have crossed!

This is usually the confirmation of the UPTREND cycle!

The value of the Total Crypto market is currently overpassing 300 Billion USD

Do you know what traditional projections of Elliot-waves launch about probable targets in the future?

  • Assuming we have completed the 1st wave of the Bull cycle, its height has reached around 365Billion USD

0f6hfa.png

  • The projection of wave 3 is typically 1.618 (no extensive) or 2.618 times the height of the first wave from the end of the 2nd.

So, for 1.618 FIBOS we get 625 Billion USD

6fs6u3.png

For 2.618 FIBOS we get 890 Billion USD

hzoy7i.png

  • For the 5th wave here we have something that does not work well with crypto.
    Typically, in traditional markets, the height of a 5th wave used to be between 0.382 and 0.618 times the height of the wave 1.
    But in Crypto it is very usual to have Extensive 5th waves as well...which use to be very long and fast.
    Anyway, if we take into account only the experiences obtained according to Traditional Markets, we have two levels of total cap projected for a 5th wave here depending if the 3rd wave is an extensive one or not, 750 Billion USD or 1000 Billion USD

0z6gbt.png

...and then, what would be the effect on the price of BITCOIN if it keeps the same dominance?

Currently BITCOIN dominance is 63%, which means that 63% of the current Total Market Cap is ascribed to BITCOIN...
If this dominance keeps constant and the total Market cap grows to 1000 Billion USD, BITCOIN would get 630 Billion of that total.
Today's Market cap of BTC is 186 B$ and the price is 10240$.
630 B$ is 3.3 Times the current Bitcoin Market's cap so, the price should reached around 34700 USD per BITCOIN on this Bull run.

...but, one moment, typically there is a transfer from BTC to altcoins on what is known as the "Alt Season" period, so?

During the last Bull cycle, 3 years ago, BTC Dominance experimented a huge fall, reaching values of 30% of dominance on the market. So, basically, BITCOIN fed the altcoins during that time and some of them as ETH or EOS experimented explosive rises.

Assuming a fall on BITCOIN's dominance around the same value, which I doubt, BITCOIN Market Cap would reach 300 B$ or 1.6 Times of todays BTC Market Cap, so, projected price is 16500 USD per BTC...

Anyway, this is what the "traditional" Market learnings seems to launch... Obviously, Crypto is not traditional at all and I am expecting a Bull Run almost equal or superior to the previous one which made BITCOIN to reach 20000 USD.

This time I am not expecting and altcoin season so important as it was in the past, people learned about that time... I think BITCOIN will sustain its dominance on a higher level than 3 or 4 years ago but... there will be always good Blockchain projects to look on...

As said in the Tittle, this is just a conservative price projections based on, TA and some rationality and past experiences... I might most likely be totally wrong...

In the coming days I will extend the analysis for the most optimist scenario, taking into account the "trading Channel on the daily"

s296on.png

Enjoy!


*Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

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