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RE: Curious why Bitcoin dropped and then popped the last few days?
Short sellers definitely still have a disproportionate hold on the market right now. With the lack of institutional investment large enough to counter the multipliers in favor of the shorts, the price will likely stay depressed. Although, increased OTC markets especially in Russia and other emerging markets - Turkey, China, Eurasia, etc, - may be a boon for Bitcoin in the near future with economic depression. Larger institutional investment coming from the developed markets, mainly the United States, will have the greatest impact on BTC and other large cap cryptos and their projects.
While that may be true, keep in mind that if enough buying does come in to force short sellers to cover their positions, the resulting move up will be larger than it would have been had there been no short sellers to begin with. While they are annoying, they also provide some kindling to launch us.
Yeah, the shorts could really take it hard if bitcoin swings the other way. Good for long-positions like mine. Not to speculate too much, but whats the outlook for the market if the shorts do have to buy in order to cover their wrong pays? Likely more than the 50% rally the market saw after the two spikes in shorts-volume - maybe 2-300% this time around with good institutional news from the SEC maybe?
Honestly I am not sure, it all depends. If there is news of a physically settled ETF being approved, I think bitcoin easily goes back to the highs. However, without that news it may be tough sledding in the short term. We need some sort of catalyst.
CXBTF ETN just went live for traders in the US. It used to be bought only with Swedish krona, leaving it pretty much unavailable to the average US retail investor. But now it can be purchased as an exchange-traded NOTE, instead of a fund. What do you think this does for the market now?
It is pretty bullish though it seems the market is not seeing its merits just yet.