Bitcoin update 9.Mar, Spooky times 👿
Bitcoin keeps dropping, at fearful volumes. Will this end, or IS it the end? I'll present several analysis tools for you today.
First a hourly chart from Bitfinex:
The Superguppy tool show no positive signs this time. The fast blue traders group's action is below the slower red Investors group. Both groups are widening, expressing great uncertainity in both groups.
Next up is the daily chart from Hitbtc, with TD sequential, MACD and RSI. Hitbtc price is about $400 above the others.
TD on a 3 red with solid red bars, and price has dropped well below the green support line. Last red TD 9 supports at $7,300. The yellow long term trend line support is about $6,600.
MACD crossing down below the signal line, and also dropping below price line, indicating we are going lower.
RSI is dropping down, and may go down to 30 worst case.
The 4 hour chart from Coinbase is also bearish, altough the last candle are currently green and up.
Price has dropped below the Ichimoku cloud, wich is twisting to red ahead.
Bollinger bands widening out, and volume show clearly that a sellout have happened in two large chunks.
All in all a quite bearish day, and it looks like it is going a little more.
The final chart show something many have pointed out, an inverted head and double shoulders.
This could be in play as we speak, and may be our resque for now. If no reversal happen the next hours I'm afraid we are going to test the support lines at $7,300 and $6,600. If they break we are going to a double bottom at $6k, or even a lower low.
These are just my thoughts, not a trading advice.
If you have another view on this post your welcome to discuss and post your charts in the comments.
If you'd like my technical analysis on another coin, please ask in the comments.
Comments are highly appreciated, and please
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Sigh...this is very rubbish at the moment. If it is manipluted i hope those ppl rot in hell...causing so much misery on the average investor. They dont realize that if they keep carrying on like this...people will leave the market and new ones wont enter.
People are saying its that tokyo guy who dumped $400m of btc thats caused this fall...i dont believe it...coz $400m isnt that much in a market thats in the billions...also its since september.
Like i said before during these times its interesting to see which TAs come out right and all and how they adjust to situations.But so far theres already two rubbish TAs that i gave a chance. One of them just a few days ago said "we wont see $10k again" and i raised the question of the possibility of another lower low and he sort of laughed and said no way....but now hes sort of saying that could happen. I understand TA needs to adjust accordingly.. But he seemed so sure. The other TA whos been in this for a few yrs was like altcoins will do better during first 3-6months and that dont know why people were surprised that eth/btc held up so well (this was back when it was 0.12) but sinxe then its fallen to 0.7. He was also sayimg how new ATH will be reached and all. Fair ebough the yrs not ended soon. But these two TAs habe sort of created a bit of a false hype and seemed a bit arrogant coz theyve been in it for awhile. Actually Haejin has also created too much hype. A few times he tried to say weve had a decisi e break out and all...but like i said before those arent decisive impulsive breakouts...
Anyway ...I'm quite tired, frustrated and a little scared of all this at the moment so im going to try and not look at price for at least the next 2-3 weeks if possible. Since if it does fall to a new low...then it should be within that time frame. So hopefully by the time i come back i will have missed the all time low...or fingers crossed it wont happen at all. So probs wont hear from me for awhile. Speak soon!
I have learned a couple things the past months, and one of them is for sure.... You can't be sure of anything.
The worst part in doing TA is to not be biased with your own wishes and hopes, and with a week in the greens after two red months this was next to impossible. Haejin and lot of other TA experts with huge followers have also failed in that bias thing, so sure this is something to work with mentally.
Also, looking at how it was doing last year and the years before is no help, as now IS a different time. We had a tremendous bullrun through 2017 so we should expect a hard hit now, but almost none did.
My Steemit account have been at below $200 worth for two months straight now, as coin value shrinked. Kind of feels like a venezuelan currency lol.
It is alloved to feel a little depressed now.
Oh...is that why the steem value keeps going up and down?...I didn't know as I'm still new to it...I was wondering why Haejin's account value was $300k+ one day and then it dropped to some $220k or so...I thought it was to do with upvotes and downvotes.
So I did say I'm going to stay away for a few weeks and not look at price...and so far I've not seen the price for about 12hrs+ now. But I did watch one more video from one of those "crap" TAs...I thought I'd give him another chance...but what hes saying is a bit of a total crap..."I'm sure it won't go down to all time low...because the RSI can't get even lower than this historic low...but then he goes, but anything is possible in cryptos...its just hedging your bets...I mean at least you'd admit you made a mistake and adjust things accordingly. I sometimes feel that these more well known TAs continue to try and give confidence because they can make money...this guy apparently offers lessons for a few hundred dollars depending on level...Haejin obviously makes it from Steem. It's funny..the other TA usually does daily videos and he didn't even do one last night....
Anyway...I saw the chart he pulled up...and then I had a "thought"...not that its anything technical and can be backed up by data but thought could we be in this right triangle (forgot technical name now, wedge?). I drew the bottom and top white lines...and if it is trading within that then:
Now if this does play out in a positive way...then you'd know what will happen...explosive growth..as that is a massive "triangle" (or wedge or whatever it is) thats started since Dec. That happened with ETH between May and Nov...and then prices shot up from $400 to a peak of $1.4k (2.5 fold increase)....applying that maths could we get $70k?....Lets hope so :)
One more thing this market is very volatile...and traders LOVE volatility...its already said that FX (which has a daily turnover of $5Trillion is becoming unprofitable to trade apparently..and also bonds too recently (can't remember why) and so cryptos is a new way for traders/big players to make money and so it would be foolish for them to kill this market when theres still so much money that could be made.
Steem and SBD are worth about $2.3 each now, ATH for steem at ~$9 first days of January and SBD at ~$16 in December says it all. Could it be the Haejin wars and all that crap is partly responsible of this? I think its main reason is the overall bear market though.
This triangle could play out, absolutely, it is just about the same lines as my Hitbtc daily in the post, the yellow line there is bottom and the green dotted the top line. Of course it's crappy if it does as many will be discouraged, but since I know it could happen I'm going to keep on. And it is a highly valid pattern TA vise so it is one of the scenarios we can expect.
I think many TA experts fail because they see themself as experts, and hide their errors in order to look perfect. Shallow thinking IMO, as I do just the opposite. I started posting my charts in order to store my errors for later and learn from them. They are the most valueable lessons. I don't mind what others think about me either, and are certainly no expert.
Your comments are very well reflected btw, and could easily stand out as their own blog posts. You prove to me you have a sharp mind capable of seeing both the details and the larger context. Your writing skills are also top notch 👍
Ah yes...you indeed have that on your chart too. But I was too annoyed to look at it in more detail at the time lol. I will continue to not look at prices for awhile and pull back out to reality. Which will mean I'll have to ignore your charts too as those art will give me a snapshot of whats going on straight away lol. But lets see how long I can hold before I give in and look at charts/prices/posts lol.
Also thanks re your compliment.
Speak soon.
Thinking of goin out for a while too, it is snowing here now and some fresh air do good. Been too many hours behind the screens this year already :)
See you around soon I bet :)