BITCOIN CRASH FORECAST.

This analysis is framed in the principle of the fan, showing the 3 trend speeds that an upward cycle takes as well as a more subjective look to frame this entire cycle in time. It is important to clarify that the analysis is done on the logarithmic graph, because the study of trends and their speed are easyer in log graph.

In order to analyze the current situation of the bitcon I have to resort to its past to find similar patterns to those we see today. As is well known, in trading history repeats itself.

It will be taken as the first contextualization the date from July 1 of 2013 to December 5 of 2013, a period of 149 days, where in the beginning the Bitcoin was priced at 65 USD and at its final peak at 1274 USD , this is an approximate increase of 1848%.

Lets start:

As you can see, I have separated the ascending cycle into two sections. The first is where there is a constant increase in price, I call it the growing phase. The second is where the price grows in an almost vertical way, I call it the final growing phase. The important thing here is to see the behavior of the trend that is always represented with three speeds, and in my concept when the trend line 3 appears is when we start the final growing phase.

To contextualize the time, it was found that in this case the growing phase lasts 137 days and the final growth phase 12 days. This means that the final phase lasts 8.7% of the total time.

Analyzed this historical context, we now analyze the current situation. Where it has been established that the upward cycle began on September 9 of 2015 and continues, but to facilitate the analysis it is assumed that the cycle ends today, December 15 of 2017. This period of time is has approximately 840 days in total, an initial price of 230 USD and end price of 17613 USD, with an increase of 7671%.

As in the previous example we observe the trend lines and their speed, we conclude that we are in the final ascending stage that is represented by the trend line 3 and that at any moment we can experience the change of trend.

CONCLUSION:

To finish, Bitcoin is now in the final growing phase, which means that at any time Bitcoin can experience a change in the trend.

For the growing phase we have a duration of 803 days and therefore in the current phase (final growing phase) we have 37 days, which represents 4.6% of the time of the entire cycle.

If we compare these final growing phases (which is the important thing), it is found to be related to the time of the cycle. Proportionally this phase is very close to 8.7% of the time reached by the previous example.

If we assume that these percentages are related, applying 8.7% to the total cycle of 840 days, we find that this phase should last 73 days, and we currently have 37 days. This means that there are approximately 36 days until the Bitcoin bubble explodes, or that it simply begins its correction. (It can be given tomorrow, in 15 days, in a month, nobody knows for sure).

Sorry for my english.

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