Can Elliott Waves Really Predict the Price of Bitcoin?

The key findings were:

1. Elliott Wave, as a theory, was statistically sound. This means that market movements can be predicted using sequences of investor psychology.

2. However, in 65% of assets, Elliott Waves were deemed too unreliable to be used for trading predictions. Therefore, to be successful with Elliott Waves, a trader must find one of the 35% of assets that move according to patterns outline by the general principles of Elliott Waves.

3. Those assets likely to follow Elliott Wave sequences have lots of liquidity/volume and are clearly influenced by greed/fear cycles. The Dow Jones matches this criteria and has been famously predicted by Robert Pretcher with Elliot

Conclusion:

In summary, it is possible to predict market trends with Elliott Waves for some assets. Although no formal study has been done, it is likely that bitcoin falls within the 35% of assets that can be analysed accurately with Elliott Waves.

However, Elliott Waves is a difficult concept to apply in practice. As a result of this, it remains very challenging to make a profit trading bitcoin with Elliott Waves alone.