When alt season?
A hot topic at the moment is when we'll be seeing another bull run for the altcoins, otherwise known as "alt season".
I can understand why many people are believing it's soon. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped in March, and then gone on to have a bull run itself from early April-ish for a sustained period of time. In around May last year, we had the alts follow suit and pump.
Then we had the alt run again in November/December.
If history is anything to go by, and I tend to believe it usually is, then we could be expecting some sort of run for the alts sometime soon. I can't say with any certainty, but looking at some of the altcoin charts throws further weight to the argument.
I'll post a few examples.
Here's QSPBTC:
FUNBTC:
XVGBTC:
And finally, WTCBTC:
This is just a small sample size, but one thing they all have in common is that they are coming up to, are around, or have hit the bottom of a huge demand level that is at the origin of the parabolic moves from the previous "alt season".
This is good enough evidence to suggest that a lot of the altcoins have corrected and can continue their growth over time now.
On a more fundamental side too, we are seeing a lot more positive sentiment around the cryptocurrency space, as well the well publicised decision by G20 to hold off on any regulation for the time being.
"What's that? Scam ICOs have a bit longer to breathe? Great!"
While this all looks well and good, I personally need to see a bit more of a bullish signal before looking to put more money into some altcoins.
As well as this, I also believe that Bitcoin's general sentiment is southward for the next week or so, as I mentioned in my previous post here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@technicalanal/where-is-the-bottom-for-bitcoin
I can certainly make a case for a $3000 bottom of Bitcoin too, which I'll make another post about soon.
Either way, if Bitcoin does indeed head further down to test the bottom of that weekly demand level it's above, then it will naturally drag down the alts a bit further.
I posted on my Twitter a couple of resistance points that we need to break through. This is the confirmation I would need for me to think that we can expect an alt season in the very near future.
What you can see in this chart is that "interim support" level I mentioned getting engulfed which makes me think we want to go lower, however we have bounced off of the top of the weekly demand level.
We face a big resistance at the ~$9916 area where we could see a double top in that 4H supply zone. This could be the turning point for us to head further south into that weekly demand, but like I said, an engulf of that (i.e. breaking through it) and retesting the resistance further up could be the signal we're all looking for.
We'll soon find out.
You can now follow me on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/technical_anal
With the bull run just getting out of the starting gates, it is heartening to see that this time BTC has NOT charged ahead and left the alts in the dust. To a degree the alts DID lose out in the final phases of the big dip, BTC lost less ground than what they did, so it is still "ahead" in the medium term.
Ever since early January when the alts really surged ahead, the crypto market in general showed that it is a force to be reckoned with. With or without BTC. It will be interesting to see BTC market percentage at the top of this next climb.
Indeed. I think there we will see another parabolic move at some point with Bitcoin. I still believe we'll end up a bit lower first before we see that.
I would argue that we are still in a parabolic run. Have a look at the second last chart in this pic (the long term chart trend line) of mine from two days ago. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@bitbrain/crypto-markets-march-2018-up-or-down
Just had a quick look and agree with you. The fact that you've traded stocks for a significant period of time and don't write like a crypto moonboy means I have given you a follow. ;-)
I think we will test the support/demand level at around $5500 which as you said was established on 12 November. From there, a trend reversal is entirely possible
Well, it's already been tested. Sort of. I wrote that post based on BTC charts because I lacked the tools to do it with total market cap. While BTC didn't hit the same low low, total market cap DID. In my shorter follow up post yesterday i wrote about BTC no longer being the dominant factor, we should rather be looking at total market cap. Give it a quick read if you have the time.
(No that's not me just trying to shill my post :) )
Ah, interesting points. I'll 100% check them out tomorrow
And I followed you in turn, not to reciprocate, but because I have a keen sense of humour and I just read your description! :laughing:
Something I'd be very cautious about if I was in crypto, doing TA on coins that have literally been wished into existence less than 6 months ago.
I'm not saying it can't be done and I'm sure as fellow trader you can, but for me it would be too risky, not enough historical data.
Too many unanswered questions so far, like what happens to crypto during a recession ? housing bubble ? quantitative easing ? is it going to follow the trends of the financial year ?
Short term, for sure, make out like a bandit because it's 99% amateurs trading and you can read them like a book. But for long term investment...hmmm.
Sorry man, not pissing on your parade, just by own reservations about coin, nothing personal.
Totally agree with you. I need to see bullish signals and liquidity in the space.
There are some beautiful setups at the moment, but until the liquidity is there, I'm not touching them. I'm patiently waiting on the sides and looking for some positive signs.
My one long term hold is in a company that has a real use case with real partners (such as BMW and DNV GL).
Other than that, I look for daily compounds to grow my trading pot. At the moment, that trading pot is sitting there alone but ready.
good luck, you're a lot braver than me lol. Saying that, I know people (traders) that are actively in crypto, and they say they're mopping up. Because it's such a newb market and most people don't understand what they're doing (after learning useless shit on YouTube) it's just a case of picking off all the trapped traders.
Pretty much what I do on FX, just not enough opportunity for me to do it with my current broker yet. I can short 5 major coins but the spreads are ridiculous wide.
Haha, I managed to turn a relatively modest sum into a pretty decent sum within a few weeks by compounding daily. But, to be able to do that again, the entire crypto space needs to pick back up!
Do you trade BTCUSD with a forex broker? And if so, what's the spread like? I've used IC Markets for a long period of time because they usually offer the best spreads, but there's always a bit of a delay in executing trades at market. Tickmill doesn't have this problem but the spreads are worse.
Heres my tradeables and current spreads (vs USD)
Bitcoin 70
Ripple 1
Ether 8
Litecoin 3
Bitcoin Cash 12
Their pip system is a little strange, but it roughly equates to USD (ie 70 is $70 per 'lot')
oh and the margin required for Bitcoin is 25% !!! so at the moment for every lot of BTC I need to put up approx $3000...