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RE: Will Proof of Work Continue to be Stable when the Block Reward Becomes Incentively Insignificant?
A couple things....
If the number of Bitcoins being paid is halved, there is less incentive to mine unless....the value of Bitcoin more than doubles. Using your numbers, 12.5 BTC at $9K....if that halves to 6.25 BTC, but the price is, lets say, $27K, wont the incentive still exist? If McAfee is right about 1M BTC, or even $100K BTC, wont that cover a lot of halving?
Also, I think it would be good to see some more of your astrology applications and trends in posts. I find them interesting and think others might also.
That's right. The value of the block reward is what I hinted at in the comment above when I stated that a miner could use a laptop CPU and get 50 bitcoins worth $150 in 2011. 6.25 bitcoin in 2020 might be worth anywhere from $500K to $6M. The question remains what happens when block rewards becomes less incentively significant than transaction fees? Then rich blocks might be forked with an incentive structure to entice other miners to build on your forked blocks (according to that Princeton white paper). I have my doubts that anyone would want to do this given that the coinbase lock time could cause them to collect next to nothing for doing so, but am still studying the underlying game theory. I can't operate as an independent node of truth on this matter until I can see all the implications for myself.
As for astrology, I find myself drawn into the underlying tech of crypto too much to want to concentrate on that right now.
PS - we also have to be careful about really high estimations of bitcoin's price. It could very well be that bitcoin may be worth $5,000,000 in the future at some time, but if that happens, it might be because the price of bread has been raised to $1,000 USD. At that point, people won't be asking how much bitcoin is worth; they will be asking "How many satoshis to buy a new car?".
I dont think that that argument is valid. If btc is low there is not much to secure. If btc is high the security needs to be higher. So with rising btc we need more security and that is the case if blockreward stays fixed.
Think this way, currently a year x% of the total value is spent to secure the network, and that number will be x/2% in 2020