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RE: Mt. Gox is a big reason for the Bitcoin price crash from all time high

in #bitcoin4 years ago

Hopefully the market is a lot bigger when the next batch is sold off.

I hope this is the reason for the sell-off. It has been painful the last couple of months. Perhaps today is the blow-off bottom on this bear market and we will start to see some upwards direction.

It is amazing that something bankrupt for a number of years could still affect the market. What this shows is how small the crypto space truly is and how it can be easily manipulated. We just need to weather the storm and do what we can to make sure the space grows overall.

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Hopefully the market is a lot bigger when the next batch is sold off.

Yeah I hope so too, kinda lame that only 35k BTC did all this.. my guess is some may have noticed the coins moving in time before these news hit the public and acted accordingly.

The trustee even took a break from selling for a longer period at some point but the last ~25k btc brought it down all the way to $6k.

It's not lame at all in my opinion. At an average of $15,000 per Bitcoin, 35k Bitcoin mean $525 million of sell. In a market where most of the Bitcoins are held for long-term and only a handful of them are traded on exchanges, 35k Bitcoins sold in big chunks can create a huge effect on the market. So it did.

Otherwise too, the marketcap at any given time is not the actual USD amount invested in all the coins. It's probably less by a factor of 50 in actual value because the maretcaps are determined based on total circulating supply. The amounts shown in circulating supply is not actually circulating because most coins are stored in wallets or masternodes.

We can see Steem as an example. The 251 million Steem shown as circulating are mostly frozen in Steem Power on Steemit and many are stored as liquid Steem. The amounts available for trading represents only a portion of the circulating supply.

I hope you know this all better than me but I loved writing this comment as it solidified my learning. I can be wrong, of course, and I request correction in case so is the case.

Lame was maybe the wrong word, I was hoping there would've been more buy pressure. Considering all other negative things that happened during that time though it might have been a combined effort to cause such a steep decline.

If mt. gox dumping to pay back the users that lost all that money in 2014 is one of the causes for the massive scam Bitconnect to go down, I'm not too disappointed by what happened to the price.

The attacks did seem to be coordinated and even right now, after having creating so much fud already, the attacks are still on.

What happened with BitConnect is good for the the crypto market any day. I agree with your sentiments.

I want to thank you for posting this. Earlier I read the headlines and thought "another bunch trying to figure out why markets moved in a given day". Yet you explained that this is a trend over a couple months. That makes it a lot clearer.

As I was reading I was thinking that this explains Bitcoin but it also shows how the alt-coins still are at the mercy of the grand daddy of them all. I know many proclaim Bitcoin dead (on a weekly basis it seems) but the market tells a different story. It is still the ringleader of this circus.

Any break from BTC is only temporary...everything else follows it over time.

There has to be a breakout at some point of one of the other coins. They cannot be simply tied by the apron strings to BTC for ever. Its like most of the worlds currenices tied to USD. Its not healthy for the future of crypto.

Well this explains a lot. I hope the Mt. Gox trustees will space their selloffs so as not to cripple the crypto market but there are so many variables in crypto that sometimes one can't say what will cause a fall in price.
I totally agree with @taskmaster4450 concerning the dependence of alt-coins on bitcoin in determining price. It is rather infuriating to see the price of steem go down because bitcoin's price did also. I also concur with @nathen007; alt-coins should break away from bitcoin. This is the only way for a truly decentralized world economy to emerge

I don't think it was only 35k worth of BTC that caused the crash in price, as acidyo stated, Chinese NY, FUD around regulations, Scams like Bitconnect, FUD around futures and the Issues with Tether all culminated at a point where BTC was at an ATH and an attractive sell point for many hodlers.

In my opinion it is great that BTC held 6k and held well above where it started at jan 2017 with all the selling that happened, all that selling is out of the market now, all the FUD is priced in and BTC held 6k and bounced to 12k doubling, it's only natural that many who bought the tops and bottoms over this wild price action will take their profits and losses or break evens as everyone has their own game and view points here.

The whales are pro's at selling off under pshycological pressure.

I made a prediction based upon a 2 thousand year old technique by Vettius Valens and wrote software that calculates the mathematics of this 20 years ago. This work is what I'm most known for. I also wrote about why I don't believe in astrology (but still use it). Nature is mathematical and set theoretical and a process of differentiation and exclusion generates pressure toward negentropy that is predictable.

If the pattern continues, we're in for about a year of relative weak market circumstances and then there will be a dramatic jump upward in price. Another (possible manic) peak should happen summer of 2020 to early 2021.

The Nasdaq is a tic below it's all-time high, owning any FANG stock yields a 2% gain every single day, which is larger than what you'd make in risk-free US Gov't Tbills of 1-year duration. Even bitcoin almost doubled off it's early Feb bottom. Remind us again how 2018 is weak?

do the planets and math distinguish between stocks and cryptocurrency?

The technique gives assessments relative to the larger picture, so 'weak' is relative to what is to come, not what has been. In my opinion no such differentiaion exists except from the differentiation pressure that comes from different starting points which generates negentropy. I've been writing "why I don't believe in astrology (but still use it). Life isn't random, but is mathematical and set theoretical.

We'd love to see a plot of gravitational force exerted on earth from all sources less than the moon. Think that would occupy some time, but perhaps be very fruitful. Gravity has such a huge effect on people's lives, yet we tend to ignore the small contributors such as Venus and Jupiter to name two.
Wouldn't it be interesting if those two combined for a pattern of peaks and valley we could chart into the past and see if it means anything?

Wow another year of weakness? That will be tough to live with.

Certainly it is possible...just disappointing.

Thank you for the links, I will follow them and see what you posted there.

I agree that there are mathematical equations that can predict most of what takes place...especially when it comes to markets which are based upon nothing more than human behavior as it pertains to data.

So you are looking for another run up to begin in early 2019?

That's the pattern. However, when I say "weakness" that is very relative to the overall picture. The problem with this technique is that dollar values are impossible to pinpoint. It could be that bitcoin is considered weak in this period because it only goes up to $100K. When you stretch it out on a graph, that $100K will look small compared to what comes after (perhaps it's only $20K - $40K in 2018 and then it jumps to $700K). I also view that chart as being applicable to all crypto in general.

Ah so your chart does not tell higher or lower, only weakness.

So how does this help from the standpoint of where things are going?

I understand the 15 year trend means bullishness yet how can one tell ups and downs? Is that possible or is it only just weakness?

The theory is based upon something that is very anthropomorphic applied to a process that is really much more sterile. If this was the chart of a person, an astrologer would say that the reputation during this time is "idle" because the ruler of the times is in detriment and under the beams of the Sun (made invisible). The Sun is often associated with authority and in Capricorn, represents possible restrictions and regulations coming. But while the symbolism says this according to the rules, bitcoin is not a person and so it doesn't have the same sense of "katarche" (important beginning in Greek).

The key to interpretation is to see it in hindsight. What the chart seems to say is that relative to what happens to crypto in the early 2020's that this period is running idle by comparison. The question is how much. It could be that bitcoin only makes it to $40K by the end of this year and that is considered "idle" because it looks flat on a graph when you compare it to prices in the early 2020's.

Ah okay I understand.

And you feel that the chart for crypto overall mirrors that of Bitcoin....that we are going to see the real upward action in the early 2020s...and there could still be upward moves between now and then, but not as much in comparison?

Am I following correctly?

Is this in relation to the % that it jumps from where it starts and ends? 1k to 20k is larger than 20k to 60k? the first jump was much stronger?

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