I have done some posts with bitcoin price forecasts in the last few days. Basically we are going to see millions of new bitcoin users in the next 12 months wanting to acquire around 6.6 million bitcoins.

The mined supply will be around 600'000 coins.

Based on wallet movements over the last 12 months, existing holders (about 25% of bitcoin owners, selling 30% of their holdings) could sell about 1.4 million coins.

There is thus a big mis-match between supply and demand. (Demand = 6.6 million bitcoin, Supply = 600'000 + 1.4 million bitcoin)

What gives?

It's the price. The price of Bitcoin has to be squeezed higher so that those users who want to buy 6.6 million coins can only afford to buy 2 million coins.

You can't do a direct price assumption of bitcoin being 3.3X today's price, because there could be leverage factor. For example a rising price creates more HODLs and more FOMOs. Imagine 10'000 people with tickets queuing to enter a pop-concert. However there are also 4000 people outside without tickets, who absolutely must buy a ticket - at any price. Would you be the first to sell? Would you try to be the first to buy? Would you be a trader? What's in your mind when you the prices rising?

The bad news would be a global ban on bitcoin.

Using the raw data, there's a lot of maths in the calculation of the future price. I don't think you will believe the price I forecast in my blog. It's quite astonishing, even to myself.

Last year the number of new bitcoin users rose by 43%. Currently less than 0.25% of all adults own more than $10 of bitcoin. There's a long way to go.