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RE: Bitcoin Bubble?

in #bitcoin7 years ago

While I do not agree with your conclusion, I support your freedom to express your thoughts and willingness to have a discussion about it. I personally believe that crypto currency, and more importantly the blockchain that supports it, will impact the financial market in the same way the internet impacted communications. Take a survey of a random sample of 50 people on the street and ask them if they know anything about Bitcoin, and if they have any. My guess is very few would know what it is, and even fewer would have any. If it was a true bubble, everyone would know about it, and everyone would have some. Keep researching, and understanding the abilities of the blockchain. If you still believe it is a bubble, wait a few years, and one of us will be right. Only time will tell for sure!

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With btc there is no way for multinational corporations to lock in their risk with btc. With the US dollar, a farmer, miner, oil producer can sell future contracts locking in profit margins. They can contol their risk if the dollar goes down. With btc and it´s wild swings, a million dollar sale could turn into a million dollar loss regarding profits with btc losing 9% in the last three days. I do not see multination corporations using btc until they have a vehicle to manage risk, locking in profit margins.

I also believe retail are the main drivers of the current btc rally. Where volume is coming out of China. Chinese people are using btc to expatriot yuan and convert it into dollars. This seems more like what people are willing to pay to get out of a shitty national currency (yuan) and into USD.

Just looking at the btc parabolic rise it is comparable to previous bubbles, NDX yr 2000, Silver yr 2011 and has eclipsed the Dow Jones stock market bubble yr 1929. I believe the more btc continues to go parabolic, the bigger the bubble it will become, if the top is not already in. I do not know, picking tops is impossible. btc bubble comparison chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FhGQdkai/

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