Bitcoin: Mid-term Bear, Long term Bull & Short-term Trader

If at all there is an award for the most-misunderstood Bitcoin twitter handle then it must go to me. My account (@Super_Crypto) is the most misunderstood bitcoin/Ctypto twitter account so far.

First, a Short summary of what I am:

1. I am extremely optimistic about bitcoin in the very long-term. Yes, I do believe we will go to 100K and possibly 1M Bitcoin in the long run.

2. I am pessimistic about bitcoin in the mid-term (for the reasons explained in my cartel post).

3. In the short term - I just trade both the sides. Sometimes I am a bear, other times I am a bull. I change my positions quickly as market changes its direction. Many times my tweets have been really confusing for the followers.

4. My goal is to accumulate more Satoshis at the end of this correction, before the next Bull starts. Unfortunately, I don't think the correction that started in Dec-17 is over yet (this can be debated.)

Having clearly laid down my approach towards Crypto, let’s get into the reasons for my confusing tweets.

Am I a Crypto Bear?

Most think I am a crypto-bear. For many people my tweets are outright pessimistic and extremely depressing. I must agree with it to some extent: Yes, my tweets can be depressing, especially if you are a unidirectional crypto mooner. Not if you are a balanced realistic crypto investor though.

Here is one example. This individual unfollowed me when Bitcoin price was at 15K because my tweets were depressing. We all know what happened after 15K, we visited 6K. I have been trying to warn people to protect their investment so they can buy more. So far I have been accurate with my tweets and predictions about the Bitcoin price.

Instead of analyzing objectively many people started screaming FUD. Unfortunately, no one could stop the correction that started exactly as I predicted. Many chose to experience the reality rather than acting on the warning.

Have I been pessimistic or realistic? You decide. So far I have been spot on about Bitcoin drop that I predicted will start on the Dec-17. Oh Boy! It did start on Dec-17-2017. See this chart as of May-01-2018

Now, let me go back where it started. I opened my twitter account late Oct-2017 after I heard of CME launching Bitcoin futures. I was NOT excited about this news. In fact I saw a Bitcoin Wipeout coming our way.

On the other hand most of the Twitter OGs misguided their followers in believing that institutional money is going to flood the crypto markets and we will soon be going to moon; 50K-in-Jan-18, 100K-in-March-18, 1M in 2020 and so on. Twitter was abuzz with many 1M predictions. Moons and lambos were just around the corner. Now you know nothing of this has materilized so far. People still prefer to be misled with moon predications and continue to chase the dreams. Unfortunately, investment world does not work that way.

Anyways, since Oct-2017 I started tweeting about how Futures market will suppress the price of bitcoin and all cryptos in general. I called for 95% drop in bitcoin price. So far we have seen 70% drop from 20K ATH. I personally do not feel we are done with the final correction yet...but this can be debated.

Fast forward to today:

NONE of the bull predictions have come true as of today. In fact everything they predicted has been absolutely wrong. Instead of Lambos Reddit had a suicide hotline handle after the spectacular drop for those who bought dreams using the credit cards.

If you feel you might be suicidal, and live in the United States, I urge you to call the Suicide Hotline at 800-273-8255

Even today, after all these failures you will see moon-lambo tweets from the dream peddlers every $500 rally.

People like to buy dreams and I don’t sell them

Anyway, the questions is - do you want me to share the reality as I see it or do you want me to sell the parabolic dreams that most twitter handles do (to increase their follower count)?

People like to buy dreams and unfortunately I don’t sell them. I am a trader who is going to "share the reality as I see it". If the reality changes tomorrow I will change my tweet style. I am pretty clear about it: I will tweet the reality as I see it. Sorry, if you feel it depressing. You can buy dreams from other OGs, there is no shortage of them on the twitter.

Many bitcoin bulls think Crypto is going to destroy the system fiat and banks and we will go to 100K soon and then 1M. This will happen but I do not see this happening anytime soon. It’s all about timing. Such an even may be years or even decades away from today.

In my view, the Price of bitcoin is being suppressed by the powers-that-be and this is going to continue in the short to mid-term. Read my cartel post again.

Fortunately, there are several who understand the world of finance and would rather know the reality than buy the dreams. See this 2nd tweet below.

Everytime Bitcoin rallies I am cautiously opitimistic. I don't see a hope for Bitcoin until I see banks and Wall street stepping aside.

Let's be clear about one thing: Institutional investors are NOT going to take the price of Bitcoin to infinity.

Why Institutional investors are NOT going to take the price of Bitcoin to 1 Million?

Wall St, COBE, CME, Goldman Crypto trading desk and all future trading ventures are NOT trading real bitcoin at the exchanges. They are creating unlimited photocopies of Bitcoin for fiat exchange. This is not real bitcoin at all. What they are trading are the paper copies of the bitcoin. This is just like creating millions of more Bitcoin for trading. What do you think happens when the supply of any commodity increases? In my view, the paper trading of Bitcoin is going to be harmful for price discovery in the long run, not going to help it in anyways.

Few years from now I will not be surprised if people prefer to trade unreal bitcoin sold by goldmann because 1) it will not have headech of wallet security and 2) it will have the blessings of the Govt/regulatory agencies. This does not bode well for bitcoin. You can study the effects of paper derivatives in Gold & Silver markets to understand this more.

When will I change my views about Paper-Bitcoin Trading?

Only when the Bank trading desks start trading physical Bitcoin. What is a Pysical Bitcoin? The bitcoin that is sold at Exchanges which can be stored in the Wallets is the only physical Bitcoin. All the Bitcoins traded on the Futures markets are FAKE Bitcoins which are going to add to the total supply of Bitcoin in the long run.

Until that time 21 Million Bitcoins is an Oximoron!! futures markets will be creating lot more than 21M.

Conclusion:

I continue to be pessimistic about bitcoin price in the Medium-term.

I actively sold 30% of Ctypto positions all the way from 20K to 10K and bought again at various levels. I do not claim I always sold the top and bought the bottom. Not at all...but overall I did lot better than others on twitter claim they did.

I can confidently say I have more bitcoins and Alts than I had in Dec-2017. This was my objective in Oct-2017 and I achieved it so far. I feel this pattern will continue.

I will change my view when I see the price suppression ending. Till that time I will be taking both the sides of the trade and keep trading in order to increase my positions.

The ultimate goal of my trading is to increase my Satoshis (Bitcoin and Alts) and ounces (Gold & silver)

My money in crypto will be riding both the sides 30% short-side on the medium-term and 70% long-side on the long-term.

Here is my portfolio distribution if you wanted to know:

30% Gold/Silver
30% Crypto
30% Real estate
10% fiat