Will Bitcoin be successful in the long run?

It is not known certainly, but here’s mine 0.00001539 bitcoins.

It is proven that the cryptocurrency acceptance over the years has became more and more prominent, nurturing the ecosystem and creation of new cryptocurrencies as well as bringing great talent and investors behind Bitcoin.

It does have certain degree of volatility, where a lot of “short-term investors” a.k.a. people who speculate the currency, make a lot of gains, hence building confidence around the matter and exposing success cases to other investors to get involved.

What people usually tend to heavily underestimate is the fact that such growth, returns and confidence does not last forever. We tend to fall for fallacy, if things are going great - it’s going to last. Wrong - it might not.

Even with history teaching us through 1929, 2003, 2007, nothing is prone to security and success, eventually there tends to be a crash. However, perhaps because there is no central governing body in the midst of Bitcoin - things might take a different turn.

Now, Carlota Perez, has done an amazing job in writing about technological revolutions and financial capital, where she identifies the periods of technology installation and deployment. These two cycles date way back and she manages to prove that with every technological revolution is followed by a financial bubble that busts.

The cycles are usually long 20–30 years per cycle, however, given the Moore’s law and way of faster technology development and installation, we might be facing the cycles to become shorter and experience market fluctuations faster. This, again, is not certain that is applicable for cryptocurrency, it would make sense, because blockchain is still underlying technology, a bitcoin is only an application built on the technology.

Now it just happens to be so that Bitcoin is an application that innovates/disrupts finance, so there still might be a bust in the system. Also, it is good to take into consideration the use of such cryptocurrencies in various dark web areas, which might complement to us witnessing a bust.

It is different tho, that the transactions are fully transparent and are logged for everyone to see, so technically, there is little probability (but there is) of the system being rigged/heavily hacked or exploited in the future.

I honestly hope, that Bitcoin will be successful in the long-run as the new means for us to transfer value to each other (a stable & safe way) and implementing along the way more and more applications that support the technology.