Bitcoin Bearish Case Elliott Wave Update - Price is progressing as expected
As I discussed in my previous post, BTC/USD Elliott Wave Count, we appear to have reached a major turning point in the wave count for BTC/USD, implying a strong bearish move. See that article for details.
Per the comments of the previous article, a break below $4449.80 would invalidate the bullish count. This morning we hit a low of $4385.
Looking at the 30 minute chart, it appears that we're currently working a wave 3 down, likely of subminuette order, which is part of a higher order wave A. If wave 3 is to be 1.618% of wave 1, which is common, prices should carry down to the $3890-$4000 level as part of this wave. This level was a key support point for minor wave 4 of intermediate wave 5.
The alternate count, pictured at the bottom of the above image, is that we've already completed waves A and B and we're currently working wave C. If the alternate count is accurate, and wave C were to equal wave A which is common, prices should carry to the $4205 level before reversing higher.
In either case, it appears that we have at least $200 of downside left before the possibility of turning higher.
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I have a very noobish question: when you reach the top of Wave 5, do you get an abc correction afterwards or do you start a new wave cycle?
Thanks for your question! After a 5th impulse wave completes, you'll get some sort of a correction. It may be a simple abc or it could be a more complex correction. The degree of the correction will depend on the wave count of the higher degree waves. Once the correction completes, you'll get a new cycle.
Im watching :), nice post