This is a good analysis. But there is another factor:

We will be training a massive wave of new, uninitiated mainstream people through our Billion Hero Challenge about the difference between the origins and utility of Fast Bitcoin (BTC-U) and the two Slow Bitcoins. It is they who will tip the scales over time because very few of these new mainstream users will see the need to use either of the two slow implementations.

Meanwhile, we will be explaining this reality to speculators inside the industry who may want to hedge their bets and buy them up cheap before we teach a billion new people about them.

Once this reality sinks in, the exchanges are businesses who are interested in any large exchange of tokens, regardless of their relative prices or philosophical underpinnings.

The Billion Hero Challenge completely changes the value proposition of Fast Bitcoin (BTC-U) as a speculative opportunity.

It may, in fact, be optimum for the exchanges to ignore it for a while giving the BitShares DEX and exclusive market and keeping massive amounts of Fast Bitcoin off the market until its value perception is established.