[0230] Crypto in a Bear Market & Bull Run, At the Same Time
In traditional stock trading, there are two kinds of markets. Bull runs and bear markets. Rising and falling markets.
But can you have something in between? A mix of fast and slow moving markets, at the same time? A "bear run"? I think you can and I think the crypto market is currently in one.
A "bear run" is a phrase I made up to describe a market that looks like it's in a bear market on the surface but is actually thriving and in a bull run underneath. How can this be?
The Real Market
The general consensus in the crypto space is that "we are in a bear market". A down turn. A correction.
As a result, a lot of investors have gone to sleep and are in a bear slumber because they think "nothing is going on" and the crypto market is "boring". Yada yada.
- If you watch the price of crypto, you may think that it's a bear market.
- If you are watching the OTC or "over the counter" markets, you would see we are in a bull market.
The other day, "someone" purchased 133k Bitcoin in the OTC markets. And that's just one of the major plays by hedge funds, etc who will be launching futures contracts backed by actual Bitcoin. So they have to buy up big to back their products.
That one trade alone means...
- One company just bought over .5% of the total future supply of Bitcoin. I.e. Not all 21m are minted and in circulation.
- If reports are correct of 4m Bitcoin being lost on the network, the figure is actually .7% of all future Bitcoin.
- Calculating current circulating supply, minus the alleged missing 4m BTC, and that's nearly 1% of all Bitcoin owned by one financial institution.
But I digress. We were talking about the bull market in the OTC space.
The Point?
The point is this. OTC trades don't move the market price, so it's silly to watch the price of BTC and equate it to a bear or bull run.
- Institutional investors and big money players are currently in a bull run at cheap prices.
- OTC trades have steadily increased during the 2018 bear market as the crypto market builds out the regulatory scaffolds to support institutional investment.
- They are not going announce it because that would spook the market into growth.
These guys don't care about rising prices at this stage. All they care is about having enough bitcoin to cover their new financial services for the next 10 years. So when the market moves, the wales will be sitting pretty.
In my mind, the bull run is on, peeps. The bull run is on and has been for some time. It's just a matter of time before the market reflects it in the price. Which is why I'm feverishly buying during the boring market so I can cruise when everyone has FOMO during the peak.
Thanks for watching,
Brendan Rohan - Indie developer of 'next gen' natural medicine from Melbourne, Australia
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