When will the Last Hodlers Sell? | BTC Analysis
Bitcoin loses ground underfoot and falls below and below. Interest in purchases seems to fall off and so it’s only a matter of time when the hodlers (those who bought bitcoin to keep it in the long run) will ultimately decide to sell their bitcoins at any price ... whether it is to get some profit from the investment, or because their loss reaches a level they cannot tolerate.
More and more people are selling at a loss. Is that a reason for a return?
We can try to make from graph an image of how big the volume is. At the time of the biggest growth and just before the peak, we see that volumes on Bitfinex were 100,000 BTC per day. Such amount of Bitcoins got into hands of new owners. Of course, a lot of deals can be robotic, but I’m still convinced that at least half of the Bitcoins of that volume ended up in the hands of some hodlers. And they are now at a loss.
In terms of volume, note the increased volume at breakthrough from 10th June. This increased volume can be found on other stock exchanges and it, in principle, legitimizes this breakthrough. It is necessary to take it seriously and also to realize that the broken line is now a new resistance (both – the growing one and the horizontal one).
Further price development will depend on the strength of the current channel. As long as the price is within the marked channel, then further drops can be expected. If it leaves the channel to the right, you can expect a correction to the previous resistance or a short-term movement to the side. However, I do not see any possibilities for overstepping the resistance.
Sentiment in the market, loans and interests on stock exchanges
OKEX top traders vote for long in a ratio of 53:45 and they invested in the long really hard – 36:12. The threat of margin calls may cause further sales.
Bitfinex – 31,600 BTC for long, 26500 BTC for short. Short positions have been growing lately, longs are stagnating.
US dollars can be obtained at 0.05% per day, decrease from last week (from 0.077%). BTC – from 0.01% to 0.026%.
Recommendation: Sell. We are falling down or going to the side (in the best case).
Disclaimer: These articles cannot be considered as an investment advice, and it is still a good idea to make speculation on bitcoin stock exchanges only with funds you can afford to lose. The high-profit potential is balanced with a significant risk of losing, especially here on the crypto markets.
Česky: https://btctip.cz/kurz-bitcoinu-analyza-kdy-prodaji-i-posledni-hodleri/
It wouldn't be a good thing if all the hodlers sell.
Some probably will. Especially the new ones. :'(
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I think true hodlers will not sell at all. because they realize bitcoin's importance for the tech and why it will see more user adoption. Most people with large vested interest want to see institutions come in as bitcoin has the potential to truly be a store of value. and for that vol needs to come down, for which adoption has to go up. none of hodlers are selling. I am not selling even if bitcoin goes to 10 cents. tbh at that level, there's no point selling .. lol. but i don't think hodlers are selling. uninformed panicked people will or traders who know what they are doing and have stop losses in place.
Thank you for your response.
Yeah, there are many hodlers that hodl no matter what, but there is presumably a large number of those, who are just few months in crypto. Those wanna-be hodlers may be afraid of losing their investment and they would rather sell with a loss. I know this is not very clear but the technical analysis of btc price is telling us that there is not a very big chance of another sharp growth (in near future). The stabilization or further sales are more likely to happen.
Of course, I agree with you that Bitcoin is an important invention which helps us to be more free, etc. But this is trading and it is based on emotions which are not always rational. Let's see how will it develop.
Yeah i agree with the TA bit. I am not the best at it, but TA is surely pointing to more downside. I think hodlers will not focus on ta. I see holdlers and traders are two different investor class.
Yeah when i said uninformed investors, i meant the same as wannabe hodlers.