RE: Bitcoin: The Greater Fool Theory....are you the Greater Fool?
Good Morning Haejin, Not sure if I agree with You, but I find Your technical analysis interesting for a few reasons...
In my almost 40 years of using TA, have never really fully understood Elliot Wave and am not sure if it really works BECAUSE many EW's will change their wave count when their past EW counts are proven incorrect.
Generally speaking, I am really interested in reading Your prospective on TA, like this particular Post... though I'm not sure if I agree or disagree with Your conclusion on this post regarding Bitcoin.
Although in this Post You are using MACD to predict Bitcoin's price movement... I'm really not sure if I agree but am certainly willing to be wrong, if You are proven to be correct about Bitcoin's near time price movement downward... HOW much lower do You expect Bitcoin to go AND is this lower Bitcoin price give You an actual price level and how long this will take for Bitcoin to go lower and then turn around to go back up ?
Thank You Haejin for responding back to these questions and look forward to more of Your Posts...
Of course, Time will Tell relatively soon about Your price prediction of Bitcoin AND I am willing to learn from You or anyone that is proven correct.
Hope You are having a Good Weekend Haejin... Cheers !!
I appreciate your thoughful insights!
#1: So, what method do you use that doesn't re-assess? I've never come across one and would love to learn. Also, tons of failure experience helps to minimize the number of re-assessed EW counts. Some EW technicians are good and some are bad and some are very talented. Just like music. As a Cellist, i see some very talented (yoyo ma) and others not so (not to be named). It's same with wealth...some are rich and others are not and some are middle class...usually dependent on their ability to earn.
#2. Thanks for your read!
#3 Here is the longer term EW count I'm using for now. Yes, for now, as nothing is perfect and impefection always needs improvements with re-assessed changes. We are currently heading towards and perhaps finishing Wave III.
#4. Someday, I'd love to retire and live in a Catameran! My favorite boat!
#5 when you chart a sailboat, how often does your course get adjusted? Same for my TA analysis.
#6. My laddered buy/sell method has helped to encompass the best ranges but also remove as much emotion as possible. I've posted on this laddering in past blogs. How often I used to buy in a single transaction and only to see prices fall lower than my buy point. This has significant emotional and psych impacts. So, for me, laddering works very well.
Hi Haejin, Sorry for my delayed reply.
My feelings are You have spent many years learning how to assess & reassess Your technical analysis methodologies.
Your laddered approach is excellent and I do the same for both entrance & exits from positions, especially in the case with NEO recently, as it was moving upward very fast at times. (( Still have a very significant core holding of NEO... smilesss ))
I believe You will reach Your goal and be able to buy a Catamaran... it's a great boat to live on, especially in the Caribbean !!... AND I believe Your dream to retire on one is much closer than You might imagine. These markets are going to be much higher in the next 3-5 years... HODL the Good Coins... >> : ~ ))
(( When You are ready to begin looking for a sailboat, contact me, I know many people in Florida and believe I can offer You some excellent guidance... AND help You get a very good price on a Catamaran !! ))
Thank You for Your ongoing & continuing analytical Posts.
Cheers !!