Bitcoin 我的掘礦記事報告三 / My Mining Journal - 3

ryoplasmic (56)in #bitcoin • 6 years ago (edited)

有好，一定有壞。呢一篇就講情況極差嘅三星期。It was 3 weeks of bad time after good time, extremely bad. (English in the middle)

上一篇嘅情況其實係好到唔可以令人相信，黎到呢一篇，就似睇一般古仔一樣，情況一定係差到去另一個極端。~~唔係我都唔會寫出黎~~

價格急升嘅後遺症

價格上升，其實真係雙刀刃黎。8月尾呢個時間其實係過去一年以黎外界對Bitcoin睇得最樂觀嘅一段時間。

首先8月頭嘅Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork清除左市場嘅不安，令外界係知道Bitcoin係唔怕呢一個類形嘅爭拗。了解到Bitcoin作為儲存價值媒體嘅事實唔會改變之後，市場當然會積極買入啦。其中華爾街有好多公司都高調唱好~~及唱壞~~，比先前更加積極。

另一方面，Bitcoin社群最期待出現嘅Soft Fork SegWit完美地啟動之後，令Bitcoin網絡首次實現交易容量提升，令人憧憬將來應用會更廣範更普及。呢一個係對加密幣嘅好消息黎，以前都講過，加密幣有佢嘅價值係因為有人用佢黎計價，只要越黎越多人用加密幣黎計價，加密幣嘅價值就會更加顯現出黎。

呢個情況係吸引好多人加入Bitcoin嘅買賣。買賣之外係掘礦，不停有人買入服務，甚至乎用高價買礦機去加入。呢一啲計算力係唔會響8月頭出現。加計算力首先要等礦機廠制造同測試好先可以出廠。然後寄又要幾日，收左件又唔係即時砌起。有時有機冇牛，有時寄外國又比入關扣查，三星期啱啱好8月最後一星期就黎料。

計算力嘅圖我就唔貼出黎了，因為最重要係個收益表。

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/5	0.00315528	0.00074625	0.00240903	4422.1106
2017/9/20	0.00242016	0.00091345	0.00150671	3612.6772

先唔好講個淨收入有幾多，睇睇掘出數量。掘出數量係唔受價錢升跌所直接影響（呢度係講梗價錢升、管理費跌嗰一種）。掘出數量係受計算力所影響。掘出數量由最高位跌落黎跌左33%！！33%！！！！！😰😰

價格急跌

本來，Bitcoin升到接近5千，用Demark睇已經話要回吐，但都未係最致命，因為原本回吐都只係講梗一千點左近，去到$4250已經升番上去。

響9月5日中國話要禁止所有嘅 Initial Coin Offering (ICO)，個市場即時嚇死左。2017年之前，其實中國對Bitcoin 市場影響好大，睇得明漢字嘅你實會明白點解。市場嘅反應出現左跌浪，仲要係由$4500開始計起，跌到落$4250左右已經令人失左信心。之後仲要有所有中國交易所被封殺嘅消息，只係消息就已經令Bitcoin最低跌破$3000，有30分鐘係響$2900。交易所怕未來法律有追索力~~或者係有人暗中出左通告~~，真係要關門，呢個影響真係好攞我命，足足跌左10日。之後仲要一個一個阻力位咁升下跌下，真係唔擔心就假。

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/20	0.00242016	0.00091345	0.00150671	3612.6772

再睇多次，淨收入跌50%以上！！！！！我當時真係好唔清醒，勁驚。我原本係計好左每個月7%跌幅係可以接受，因為計價嘅時候只要Bitcoin上升我就唔會有問題。50%係講梗我預期中好多個星期嘅掘礦跌幅黎，令我諗「咁咪好易比人取消合約！？」

每日所掘出黎嘅Bitcoin數量 < 成本每日需要扣除嘅Bitcoin數量

心情非常差

收益急跌，價格又不停下跌令到成本急升，有乜會差得過呢兩樣野一齊發生？而且係天堂去到地獄，呢一種痛，比起一般股災嘅時間更加難受 - 快上快樂落嘛.....

得出結論

而呢一篇驗證嘅事係有下列兩項：

掘礦難度急升對掘礦而言係死敵。唔好天真到諗住價錢升可以彌補呢個損失。
價錢上升完必定會回吐調整。調整得少係好事，但調整再加上壞消息會令掘礦收益暴跌。

下一篇係關於奶左野之後嘅心理嘅問題，係有重要意義嘅一件事，千其唔好錯過。

### English Version

The situation of my mining progress deteriorated drastically since the previous 3 weeks in Journal 2.

Price Surge brings Back Fire

Price surges are 2 blade sword for Bitcoin Mining. It is best for describing the the 1st 3 weeks in August 2017.

1St, the completion of Bitcoin Cash hard fork cleared the annoyance to the Bitcoin community and the market. Bitcoin’s survival after the hard fork re-assumed Bitcoin as a store of value unchanged, leading to more purchases, including the purchases from the Wall Street.

At the same time, the activation of soft fork SegWit had long been awaited by the whole Bitcoin community, making the first Bitcoin network processing capacity scaling succeeded. Higher capacity for the existing Bitcoin network increased the possibility of higher adoptions of the cryptocurrency. Just as what I have said in my previous stories, the higher adoptions could mean more people is likely to price their asset in Bitcoin, helping the market to seek the optimum values Bitcoin could represent.

When you do not want to buy it directly, you will seek ways to obtain it – mining. There is always a time lag between price surged and increase in hashrates. To get new miners ready for mining, the initially shortage miner production line had to make them, test them and ship them to the buyers. When these miners arrived the buyers' farm, they had to be set up, and for most of the time they had to wait for the power adapters to arrive as well. These hashrates went live to the network in the last week of August.

To me, figures below ~~were~~ are more important than the hashrate plot:

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/5	0.00315528	0.00074625	0.00240903	4422.1106
2017/9/20	0.00242016	0.00091345	0.00150671	3612.6772

You can tell how much I was shocked simply by looking at the Mining column. This Mining is the output before Maintenance. 33% drop.

Steep Price Drop

As the Demark indicator shown, Bitcoin must fall when it first shot near $5000. Original estimation on the best technical analysis guy in Bitcoin world was a drop for around $1000.

What screwed me up was the ICO Ban by China on 5th Sept. The market died down immediately because China was the most important Bitcoin buying country in the world before 2017. ~~You know, it was about capital flows…~~ This made the adjustment restarted at around $4500, to around $4250. It was still talking about ICO. The next round was crypto exchanges close down, all of them in China. This created a cliff to around $3000. This was killing me because the drop was strong and the time was long, 10 days.

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/20	0.00242016	0.00091345	0.00150671	3612.6772

Look. It was a drop from the highest Net Income to this point for more than 50% in this short period of time. My projection was still acceptable to me when the Net Income was down 7%. It ~~was~~ is way too much. It looked like I am getting close to mining contract cancellation…

Mined Bitcoin < Maintenance in Bitcoin

Feeling extremely Bad

Net Income dropped significantly + Price dropped continuously. This is the worst case in my projection. From the heaven to the hell is pain like kicking my ass hard, feeling worse than financial crisis.

Key Take Away

My aim for this story is to explain 2 simple facts:

Mining difficulties is inversely correlated to Mining Output. Do not think price rise can compensate the loss in Mining Output.
Even if price adjustment is inevitable, bad news always make your Net Income further reduced.

The next story will be about expectation management. This is way more meaningful than everything. Stay tuned.