Crypto Analysis Report 6-14-18 BITCOIN...$6000 Level…The Do Or Die Level
I have been talking about the $6000 level since I joined Steemit back in five different posts over the past four months:
We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.
Personally, I like the buy orders at $6000 because that was the origin of the move to $12000, which signifies extreme interests in buying at that level...not to say price will go that low, but that level is buying Bitcoin at an extreme discount.
If last week's price action was any indication, we will get to that level in 5-7 days. Even if we get that low, I'm going to wait for confirmation in the form of trend line break on the daily chart
In the post/graph above, I stated we were approaching what I believe would be the bottom of Bitcoin at $6000 and that my first target was $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months. Thus, I wanted to expand on why $6000 is such an important level to the Bulls.
In Nov. 2017 the buyers bought Bitcoin and kept buying Bitcoin all the way up to $20k. From $6k to $20k is a big move up, but the origin of this big move started at $6k. So when price revisited $6k in Feb. 2018, the buyers stepped in again and price rose to $12k.
There are a lot of people out there that think Bitcoin is heading a lot lower....like below $6000. However, in the past I have talked about the $6000 being key and strong level, so I don't see price getting below $6000 without a tremendous fight from the Bull.
In just a couple of days, price has dropped $1000 points on an exchange getting hacked and price manipulation and because the weather was just nice outside (that one is a joke). The infamous $6000 level came into play again yesterday. Price came within $100 of $6000 level before bouncing.
This level has come in to play one other times in the past four months. I really don’t know how long this level will continue to hold. It’s like a dam ready to break. It’s the due or die level for Bitcoin. If this level has any chance of holding, the daily candle must close above $6800 (aqua circle).
The second test for the buyers are the first signs of sellers at $7200 on the 4 hr chart (yellow circle).
If price breaks the $6000 level, price is going down to weekly demand zone at $4400. Lets see if the naysayers great their wish.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
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Thank you. Bitcoin is very oversold right now, a triple bottom needs to be confirmed with volume, otherwise your scenario is in play.
Agree, the sentiment is so low, we need to see conviction and volume would do.
I think that the miners will hold their sells below $6,000 as well as most miners are averaging costs around that area as well so it could be consider an intrinsic value target as well. However, volume has to be convincingly high for a bottom.
Interesting point, I was starting to do some analysis on the miners break even cost, but didn't finish. Yes, buyer volume is going to be key if price is going to move higher.
At time of this post. Daily estimate is 72$ a day so just over 2100$ a month with 300 in electric cost. So its still not terribly low imo. I prefer seeing 3500+ a month from my rigs but so long as i am above electric cost it really does not bother me.
Appreciate the insight @majornexx, so what price would Bitcoin have to be at for you to breakeven and how much are you paying in electric per kwh?
:)
@rollandthomas: you said the other day you expected a bounce possibly to $7500. Given what has happened since, do you still think this is a probable scenario prior to a break below $6000, or do you think such a move is more likely to be capped lower, like say $6800-7000?
Thanks
The probability has decreased since the $6850 level was breached. It's not out of the question, but now price has to get pass the $6800 level and the $7200 level first, which wasn't the case in previous days. If the $6000 level is breached, I think we go lower before we go higher.
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Absolutely, thanks. I am considering decreasing my short term exposure, and wondering what levels I might expect could be the best opportunity to do so.