RE: Is Bitcoin Still Bullish? Where Does it Make Sense to "Load Up"?
I appreciate the work that goes into making these charts. But good technical trading would also establish how frequently these patterns worked for the asset in the past. Have you had a chance to do that? Even a glance at the data immediately preceding your identified "Bullish Bat" sure look like they would have been gored, and repeatedly. The more volatile the asset, the harder it is to have any reliable pattern.
Why draw a hypotenuse from point X to A on the first chart and not draw it to the June 5/6 high? The human mind has a tendency to find false patterns in nature, and this compendium of patterns seems non-falsifiable.
If I say I see the "Engorged Pelican" formation (belly from May 25 to June 5, beak 5 to 12, and fish dangling from its mouth just after that), how would that be proved or disproved anymore than the "Bullish Bat"?
Hahaha...
I know where you're coming from about the patterns and subjectivity around them. I really do. BUT, in my experience some of them work more than enough to be profitable trading them and there are a number of traders who have logged in years of trading them and "back-testing" them, who have demonstrated an over 50% success rate on these patterns, which is more than good enough to make profit when the targets are over 2 times the risk.
I've done some back-testing myself, but, quite frankly, I don't have the time to put into back-testing individual trading vehicles for these patterns and, thankfully, I don't have to because I never trade based solely on a pattern or pattern breakout.
I trade based on "case evidence", based on the gamut of technical analysis indicators/ signals. IMO, a simple "bat pattern" isn't reason enough to enter a trade. However, if that pattern completes at a major support level AND has the support of the 50 DSMA, well, then I'm watering at the mouth to jump on that opportunity.
I can't say this is an instance of the bullish bat being successful, because it didn't quite reach point D, but I've seen it be successful enough to take it seriously and to take it into consideration when I'm trying to build my case for or against a trade.
I appreciate the thoughtful response. To be clear I believe technical patterns are possible in immature and small markets - and cryptocurrencies are among them. Back in the (2014) day there was an MIT Paper no less that showed extraordinary gains albeit with a very small unit size. Good luck with your trades thanks for sharing.