The Economics of Why Bitcoin is doomed to fall ..

in bitcoin •  11 months ago

I am a realist. I also have a "B.Ba" (1967) degree from Tulane University (Louisiana, U.S.A.).

I studied from "Samuelson's Economics" and also Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, and other classic economists. I have always been pretty much correct when I predict devaluations.

I say this as a preamble, to say I can see what is happening, and I have not seen this mentioned neither by Jamie Dimon, (who I do not agree with, except I agree that Bitcoin is doomed to fall... but not to zero...)

I am a Bitcoin and crypto currency fan. But I see a tidal wave coming, a tsunami is building which prevents Bitcoin from reac hing $1,000,000... or even $100,000... maybe even from reacihing $20,000 again.

And that tidal wave is all the shitty ICO's that are flooding into the market EVERY DAY. All of them are convertible directly to Bitcoin. And every single new ICO takes force away from Bitcoin.

There are an infinite number of new coins that will be created. Everybody and his uncle comes up with a new coin "for the XXXXX industry" or for the "YYYY" industry, when the fact is that MOST of these coins are just fluff... hot air... and idiots like us that buy them, in the hope that we can buy a coin like Bitcoin 10 years ago, at 1 penny, hoping that someday it will rise to $1.00 or better, to $10 or $100.

Oh, yes, look at me, such a genius.

But the only geniuses were the ones who bought Bitcoin, or mined Bitcoin, or received free Bitcoins from Bitcoin fountains, and kept them for 10 years... which almost nobody did.

I heard about Bitcoin many years ago but, like Jamie Dimon, I didn't understand what it is, so I didn't bother to buy any Bitcoins. And I didn't understand what is "Bitcoin mining"...

It was not until mid 2017 that I finally woke up... This was before Bitcoin doubled and doubled and doubled again, and alll the crypto currencies also went up.

Unfortunately, that is also when many scammers thought of coming out with new crypto coins. A website, and a new angle for each one... Some had something new, most are just the same old old again.

So why is Bitcoin doomed to fall in price? Because although new money is coming into the system, not enough new money is coming in to keep up the price of Bitcoin and also all of the new ICO's. Bitcoin is being diluted, precisely the same as the U.S. dollar is diluted when they print Trillions of new dollar bills to pay off the debt of previous trillions of dollars printed.

This is as if Honduras or Albania or North Korea print their currency, then go to the central Bank and exchange it for U.S. dollars. As long as their is somebody who will exchange Dollars for Honduran or North Korea bills, they only have to keep the presses rolling. They don't have to make counterfeit dollars, they have to print authentic North Korean bills and change them for U.S. dollars (if such a thing could be done, which I think it cannot.)

So now they are "printing" new ICO's every day. There are dozens of new ICO's EVERY DAY... in the hope that some fool will stick in real paper money (a.k.a. "fiat") to buy them, or at least pay with Bitcoin or Ethereum.

So how bad is this for Bitcoin ? Well... just see how much Bitcoin is of the Total Market Capitalization.

bitcoin-market-dominance.png

That is, of the total of all the money on Planet Earth, the Percentage of Total Market Capitalization (Dominance) is now LESS than 40%, down from 90's and 85's percent up to early 2017.

More than 70 NEW crypto currencies have been launched IN THE PAST 30 days !

Each one is robbing some strength from Bitcoin.

The solution? The exchanges should refuse all the crappy new ICO's.

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disregard new ico)

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The point of my post is that you cannot disregard new ico's precisely because they are all convertible to Bitcoin, and so they each steal some energy from Bitcoin price.