Crypto Market Forecast and an Appendix

I need to hurl this out there upfront: I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. I am however someone with a PhD from one of the best universities in the world and am currently teaching in a private University in the north-east United States. Does this mean that I normally do not shoot from my hip? Maybe.

For my sake, the crypto world needs serious involvement from a compulsive researcher like me to fan out a cultivable analysis and summer is the only time when the mad rush subsides in my life. I had been eyeing the sphere to try out my Mohican model for some time and I finally got down to it post-May. Now what is this Mohican model? Well, the beans cannot be spilled, even for Rowan Atkinson, but this much I can divulge is that it is still in its pre-Alpha stage. I am throwing the next few paragraphs out there to discern the probable credentials this might display in the future. It is like a pregnant lady who looks good but you do not know yet know whether a Gandhi or a Hitler will come out of that bulge.

The market has looked volatile to say the least. The volatility will remain in the foreseeable future and you do not need to be a Nobel Laureate to guess the cause for its photoelectric effect. The second week of August is when the see might get sawed through. I am looking anywhere between the 10th-17th of August for the market to suffer a jolt, a more than a minor hiccup. Things will start to get their color back from around the 25th till about the 10th of September, though the volatility will remain. My model indicates that the period between 11th-20th September might be another rude awakening. The coming few months will have periods of ups and sudden downs. I will be back to share my prognostication about that bridge once we get close to it.

The market right now looks healthy even though it is down. It is precisely the fact that it is down and is consolidating makes it look healthy. Whatever bubble fear we had, have been taken care of. With further consolidation that is coming up in August and later this year into the next, I honestly do not have any worries about a serious meltdown. But, we should be prepared for the downtrends that will pop up from time to time.

Appendix
As an Appendix, I need to quickly comment on something else that I find very important. Recently, I heard through some channels that important people in the cryptoworld have been ruminating on the lack of talent that might hinder the growth of the sphere and how the ICOs are essentially oversold because the people are overestimating the talent level of the budding entrepreneurs and developers. Someone like me has the privilege of looking at an invisible index of talent acumen every day. They walk in and out through the classrooms, into my office, some sad, some happy, most very optimistic. I have looked at their works—undergraduates, graduates, post-docs; chances are that a majority of them will vanish and then there are others who do and will flourish. There is no doubt that the ICOs are oversold. There is no disagreement about the doubt Vitalik Buterin has expressed about the possible lack of talent out there. But do we have talent? Yes, we do. Is that an enormous number? No. But it is a workable number. It is a number that the people in the cryptosphere need to harness and use. And I must say, the HR activity of the ICO companies have been rather disappointing. They refuse to use the light-sabers even though the force is so seemingly with them. The ICOs might get into a bubble not just because of the money that is being thrown at them; it might be land-mined because the talent that can diffuse those mines are not being brought into the equation. Something needs to be done about this, soon. It is up to the people, who invest with their hard-earned money, to demand from these companies a catalogue and a detailed description of the HR activities they have indulged in. This is extremely important and I cannot over-stress this.

Well, that’s all folks. I will be back soon with a brief round-up of a project that I find has tickled my brain cells. Feel free to comment and share your opinions. Cheers!