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RE: Bitcoin a leading indicator for stocks?
I don't think so. It's more likely to be a coincidence. Either that or the wall street is really interested in investing their bonuses into Bitcoins. 😬
Crypto markets move very differently than stock markets so I don't believe there's any correlation between crypto markets and the stock markets.
Look at that chart above, there is no denying that there has been major correlation between the two over the past 3 months.
Hmm I don't disagree that we can see a correlation in last few months. I'm saying that even if it's better to be informed, it's not enough.
Where I was coming from is I think it's better to watch it further before we can conclude that. The reason I was saying of crypto markets moving differently is - the next time there's going to be an up move of BTC reaching a new ATH, say 80k for calculation's sake, it would have moved up by a 1000%.
If we're saying that there's a correlation between stock markets and crypto / BTC prices, it also follows that the stock markets would reach a new ATH in similar % in tandem with BTC which isn't likely.
I think it would be dangerous if the reality turns out to be what you're saying, the two markets being correlated. I have equity investment background and a 30% drop in my investment in any stock would have turned me away from investing altogether.
The truth is crypto is a completely new asset class in itself and its price is affected by a lot of other factors outside of control of the wall street money. Think of alt coins, ICO economies. BTC aside, some micro cap cryptos have even moved up 900%, 1000% in a day.
Hypothetically, it's also possible that crypto/BTC price would go to 0 in a day or say a month. If that were to happen and the markets are correlated, we would see an economy crash worse than 2008. So it would be catastrophic to the entire world. It works in everyone's favour when the stock markets and cryptos are not correlated. Stock markets cannot digest a 70% dip such as the current one. Also crypto is a 24x7 market unlike the stock market. So a high correlation would also mean some BTC whale that got in really early sitting somewhere in remote village can turn the economies of countries upside down just by deciding to sell off his Bitcoin stash like in the case of Mt Gox whale. That's hardly desirable.
They used to move independently. The money manipulators started using derivatives to manipulate the price...right around the time Morgan Stanley is bragging about here.
My point was they cannot stay correlated for too long. Stock markets would never be able to digest a 70-80% crash such as the current one.