12/1/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Overall the 2 and 4 hour time frames are looking less bearish for the overall health of the market.
The daily time frame is also showing an uptick on the MACD, whereas the 3 day remains unfazed. Meaning that a longer term bearish market could be a week or two away and we are just fighting it off at the moment with hope, prayers and FOMO.
That said this could be the beginning of a short term reversal toward the good or it could be a small Bull Trap. If BTC fails to maintain its upward momentum or give enough hope of a full positive reversal look for high volatility and quick panic sells. In all likelyhood the market will be somewhat rangy today, while slowly trending upwards. What I am looking for is positive news in the six hour time frame and confirmation thereafter to show signs the new upward trend is solidifying.
Also be wary of quick reversals of fortune if upward price action on BTC seems to be stall at any point and people decide to quickly use the emergency exits. Quite a few people got hurt on the last downturn, and there is likely a trading pool full of FOMO and Revenge traders that will be making irrational decisions. Maintain a contrarian point of view and look for good places to get in if the market confirms the entry point.
BTC stands at $10,481 for the moment on GDAX. If the market stays happy I would look for buy in between $10,100 and $10,000. I would be cautious of buys into the $9,000 zone as that may not indicate consolidation or a pullback but a reversal of fortune and continuance of the previous downward trend. There is upside divergence on the hourly so there will be a pullback of some sorts. That said we are just about in balance with the trend line so we may spike into the $10,900 range before suffering a sharp reversal and pullback. In that event, so long as longer time frames and volume confirm the good, our buy points would move up in the the $10,300 range for short term, closely monitored trades with sells in the high $10,000's.
LTC at $93.00 seems to have priced the move in already and I would stay clear of it as investors have already speculated price based on the current uptrend in BTC. I would look for buys in the mid $80's
ETH at $457.00 may be the big winner today being well off its previous high and appearing as though speculation has yet to price it up. I would look for a buy in the $440's
As always I will put my money where my mouth is and post my trades to the comment section once I enter a position. If I catch an opportunity great, if not, there will be another one tomorrow. Always protect your capital. NO FOMO
The moral of the story is that we are in the middle of, or towards the end of an upwards move that began at 0300 EST. That said, this is not a buy point as the market could reverse. This is the perfect buying scenario for FOMO trading as it is very enticing to jump in and get your capital raped. As stated I'll wait for some form of correction and enter then, it may be a few hours.
nice post @pawsdog
Thank you. I embrace being transparent and sharing my knowledge. I don't always win, and if I lose a trade I will post that too. Nobody wins all the time. Crypto is about capturing profits and capital risk management. @pawsdog
2 hour is looking good, likely going to trend upwards I would say from the 93 point. But I'm a value guy so I will wait and see what happens
The volume tends to be trending down on the hourly and trading in an ever narrowing range which is indicative of money (mine included) sitting on the sidelines or holding onto a previous position (not me). The charts are saying we are about to head down, as we are still in overbought territory. It's crypto so it may go to 25k in the next hour, lol.. but unlikely.. I'm not really seeing consolidation and base forming as much as I'm seeing fear and uncertainty with a lot of speculative investors sitting high with their finger on the sell button if it goes south. As such I'm holding my original calls for the moment..
Someone is accumulating a lot of LTC on a few exchanges.. 1000 LTC lots, at a time...? Baiting maybe to dump.. I'm not sure..
Really an epic, Bulls vs Bears battle going on with BTC.....
2000 BTC to go up 5 percent, 400 to go down 5 percent. Seems a bit top heavy and lacking support, and there is little volume. But the longer this goes on at the 10550 range the more of a support level it builds. I'm interested in seeing what the next hourly down trend brings in the way of punishment. If if holds above 10,000 there may be good news ahead.
Trades Made 0, Money Lost 0, Capital 100%
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