BITCOIN – Short-Term Update, Bias, & Key Statement for 3-19-2018

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

So yes, I’ll admit it, I can get a bit passionate in my ramblings and writings from time-to-time, especially if it’s the weekend and I’ve had a few too many glasses of wine prior to an official update. Do forgive me if I’ve inadvertently or otherwise, might have stepped on anyone’s toes in this regard.

For one reason or another, I’m thinking this behavior is likely the result of 10-years of posting TA articles on Safehaven.com. As such, in stark contrast to the musical realm, which I so love, I can get somewhat competitive when it comes to the realm charting and forecasting.

Be that as it may, I shall make strident efforts to contain these latent tendencies, and do my best to focus on the price action alone – and to foster more of a spirit of community similar to the way that I do for the #openmic venue. So, let’s get on with it, shall we?

…Key Statement:

So, I’m turning short-term bullish here until the price-action dictates otherwise. I’d like to see any pullback toward a prospective and bullish 2nd wave decline at minuette degree, to hold the 50% retracement level, which resides near or about the 8022 handle.

Within this recently adopted bullish realm, I’m citing an upside price target of 10,450 vs. the 7325.37 print low.

Insofar as the long-term “trend” is concerned; it remains down as of 3-12-2018 basis my weekly chart analysis. As such, I am adjusting my long-term bias to modestly bearish until my weekly trend-chart provides a bullish signal.

Be that as it may, insofar as the largest of trends is concerned, that being the “secular-trend,” I continue to remain moderately bullish.

NOTE: I should have changed my long-term (3-mos. to 6-mos. out) bias to the bearish side of the equation on Monday, March 12, 2018, which is when my weekly chart moved to the short side of BTC.

The long-term trend is currently “down” according to this study, and from this point forward, I shall use its objective trend bias going forward to define my “longer-term” sentiment.

Be that as it may, the “secular-trend” (3-10 years out) – or the largest of recorded trends on measure via the monthly chart, remains bullish thus far – although it’s been considerably weakened by the recent 70% decline to the 5920 level - it remains bullish on balance.

Short-TermBiasTargetSup-1Sup-2Res-1Res-2
@passion-groundBullish10,4508,3667,3808,7189,090

Long -TermBiasLow 2018Target 2018
@passion-groundA bit Bearish5,92012,235 min / 37,419 max

…You Can’t Miss with Swiss-Chris!

Otherwise known as @famunger, Chris puts together a daily recap of all the top technical analysts across STEEMIT, and beyond. He does so in order to provide the community at large with the best possible forecasting guidance relative to the price of BITCOIN, and by default, the balance of the crypto-world at large.

In checking out @famunger’s daily recap, you simply can’t miss! His collective assessments of all the select analysts are akin to getting the very best snapshot of what the near and long-term future is likely to hold for those with a vested interest in BITCOIN and the multitude of coins, tokens, and alternative currencies that BITCOIN clearly paves the way for.

…BTC Update

Right Click and open in new tab to view full size image.

BTC - Hourly - 3-19-18.PNG

…Video Update

Select HD and “Full-Screen” for the utmost clarity in viewing this video update.

I trust that the preceding analysis was generally objective, explicitly actionable and informative, and of relative and meaningful value for all those who perceive such analysis as a backstop to their individual ends.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Justice for All

DISCLAIMER: This post and all of the analysis contained herein serves general information purposes only. I am not a registered financial adviser. The material in this post does not constitute any trading or investment advice whatsoever. The trend-following strategies explained herein are for example only, and should not be construed as trading or investment advice in any way. The same thing goes for anyone subscribing to the Long-Term Trend Monitor. The subscription simply shares with subscribers what several automated trend-following systems are doing, and that’s all. The bullish and bearish alerts provided therein are for information purposes only, and they are not to be construed as advice to buy or sell. At the time of this writing, the author does not hold any positions in BITCOIN or any other crypto-currency. Please conduct your own due diligence, and seek counsel from an accredited financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Should you decide to mirror or copy any investment or trading examples from this or any other related source, the decision to do so is entirely your own - as are the inherent risks involved in doing so. I am not responsible for any of your losses. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept to never hold me accountable for any financial losses. Thank you.

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Thank you for providing this great analysis like always. Very interesting to read about your thought process and your change of your short-term and long-term sentiment. If I get you the long-term is considering 6-12 month. If that is correct help me understand how you mean to be "a bit bearish" here and having a target of '12'235 - 37'419' for 2018. I just struggle to understand that. Sorry if I missed something here...

And if I may one question: Are you looking also on the 200 and 50 MA? They going to cross soon. Does that mean something in your point of view?

Yes, sort of... It means something only because so many people pay attention to it, however, given that very fact, such widely broadcast "death crosses" can often be head-fakes for the masses who follow them. That's how I've found such well-advertised signals to react in the legacy markets, however, it may be different with BTC... We'll just have to wait and see...

I've always preferred coming up with my own custom "cross-pairs" kind of like I did with my long-term weekly chart for BTC. After endless tinkering with various settings, I look back at the entire data series to see how my "custom cross pair" held up throughout various market cycles. If it shows at least a 60% win rate with greater than a 2:1 or 3:1 win/loss ratio, I know I'm onto something.

Tweaking the crosses in this fashion is a lot more work, and putting in the time to do so typically far outperforms the conventional crosses when comparing efficacies. Hope that helped some... Thanks again for the comment and question.

I appreciate your comment @famunger, thank you! Actually, my long-term views are a bit shorter in nature, however, my super-long-term or "SECULAR" view remains bullish with all of the attendant targets. I've created a special image for you explaining this. I did talk about it briefly in the above video from the 19:00-minute mark if you'd like to check that out too.

PS
As a result of your question, I think it's prudent to adjust my "Long-Term" timeframe to (3-mos. / 6-mos.) out.

SECULAR vs Long-Term Trend.png

You know the drill... right click and open in a new tab to read all of my notes. Do excuse any grammar or spelling errors as I was typing fast and there's no spell-check in the program I used to create this for you.

For future viewers: price of bitcoin at the moment of posting is 8512.40USD

I have a very good feeling for Bitcoin, 2018 so far has been rocky, but by the end of this year Bitcoin should be worth well above 25,000USD$.

Wouldn't that be nice!

@passion-ground your post is so...... helpful and meaningful. i appreciate with you. all the best...... and thanks...... for share

Thanks for your comment and well wishes...

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