RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Overnight hit $7,352!! What's next? Check out this Analysis!!!
Maybe, but I think a sizeable portion of investors are going to jump ship to altcoins before it. That will be enough to stop the momentum.
You want to be in before the rise, not during/after, after all.
It's a calculation. If B2X is worth $1000 and BTC is worth $7000 that means you get 14% profits from gaining B2X. But considering the sell-off directly after the fork, you stand to gain maybe 10% in the correction, unless you time the market perfectly (you won't).
However, if you jump ship before the fork, you miss out on the 14% B2X money but instead you profit maximally from the altcoin rise. Do you think it's possible that some (many) altcoins will rise more than 14%? I do.. a lot more, actually.
Basically you jump ship before everybody else, so that when everybody else jumps ship you're already on the rising star. Because everybody is planning to sell after the fork, this means you have to do it before the fork. Doing it after won't work, because price goes up in 1 minute and by the time you make your buy you'll be buying 20% more expensive than before the fork.
In general I agree with what you have put forth here....however....there is no guarantee than ANY coin will rise or fall any specific amount. The only guarantee in place for the fork is the guarantee that if you are holding BTC you will receive free money in B2X.
Even that isn't a guarantee, more and more parties are withdrawing support of B2X. But yes, most likely you will get free B2X. Truth be told, I wish I wasn't on this altcoin train atm because with all the uncertainty I'd love to be on both the BTC and B2X train just in case. But that aside, I still think there's a very big chance the bull run will end before the fork, not after. I think the peak will be before the fork, not on the fork.
Support will be there. Remember how LITTLE support BTG had? Yet, it happened, free money was given out, and all those who said they wouldn't support it are now back peddling and preparing to exchange it.
Well, we'll see in about two weeks what will happen. I've been wrong before, but my money is on altcoins rising and Bitcoin bull run ending a couple days before the fork.
Amen to that....it's all speculation...this market is still in it's infancy. And to be completely transparent on my stance, I will hold alt coins and btc during the fork....never all in one spot anyway!
You seem to be forgetting the upward momentum that is already in place and the relative strength of Bitcoin now. The scarcity of coins, the massive difficulty increase and the plethora of news that keeps bringing Bitcoin into the light.
Also, not a single altcoin has out-performed Bitcoin.. ever.
While I understand your perspective, I whole-heartedly disagree. While a retracement to 5000 may be possible (for less than one day), we are still on the climb.
If everyone believes Bitcoin is going to 100,000+ .. how many people are willing to sell at a measley $7,000? The sheer number of people HODLing is going up, and the available coins are going down as investors snatch them up. Scarcity my friend, scarcity.
Bitcoin will go up to $100,000 but not without a few major crashes along the way. No market remains on a continual bullrun forever. The price is currently pumped up immensely by a combination of factors and will keep momentum for as long as that combination holds. But 5% is enough to turn a bull market into a bear market, and many more than that will be selling around the time of the fork. At these high prices everybody has sweaty hands, nobody wants to be caught holding the bag when it dumps. The higher it goes the more trigger-happy people will get with protecting their profits; more and more is at stake.
Most experienced traders tend to agree that at some point we will see a big correction, @haejin too I believe - certainly $5000 is very realistic yes. @haejin actually predicts Bitcoin to crash below $500 at some point after the current bull run is done.