It may take 2 years before Bitcoin reaches 3000 usd again
To illustrate this we take the 3day 2012-2017 usd-btc chart of Bitstamp as represented on Bitcoinwisdom in logarithmic mode.
The horizontal lines on this chart are halving/doubling levels going down from 2400-1200-600-300-150-75-37.5-18.75-9.375-4.6875-2.34375.
Next we draw trending support/resistance lines that cut each next doubling line exactly 9 moths later, illustrating these lines mean that the value of Bitcoin along these trendlines doubles every 9 months.
We see that the 2 ATH's from 2013 clearly represented 'oversold' situations.
That's why it took 2 years for price to reach a stable bottom level after the last ATH of 2013.
In order to see where we go from here, it may be interesting to compare the present situation with that of june, 3 years ago.
If we project the movement from then onwards on the current position in the chart, we can see that it took 2 full years to reach the level from 600 usd again.
The same thing could happen now, with a spike all the way down to the 600 usd level around the end of this year, followed by a 6 month period of stability around the 800 usd level, and an ideal entry point in autumn of 2018, followed by a bull run all the way up to 12,000 usd in may 2019.
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I dont think so . I hope it will be earlier going to the moon ,btw great post . Lets wish best 🙂
Now look at the daily chart
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The strongest steapest peak is on Lord Ascension's Day of 25 May.
After that it looses steam and makes a huge round top and at he 2400 usd level cuts down through the ultra steep trending support line.
My feeling: we are in a bear market as of 26 May.
I don't think so, take a look https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@park.bom/my-short-thoughts-on-btc-27-june-2017
As far as we above 2400, It's only consolidation for me. Even on your picture 2, we did not reach the upper boundary of the channel (as in 2013).
I would hate to see these 'overshoots' like the two ones in 2013. See how long it took to go down and before a new bull run began. More than 1.5 years !
When Bitcoin follows the trendlines within the channels, it already doubles every 9 months in value !
thanks for the analysis <3
Interesting. I sold a big chunk at around the $3k mark (There is a huge premium in South Africa) to fund my food truck biz. Let's hope I make lots of money this season and BTC tanks so I can restock. :D
So do you think BTC will continue to drop?
If so this can be a great opportunity for some people to invest in BTC and make huge profits
Now it is going sideways since 25 May, for more than a month already. And the only time Bitcoin went up and didn't look back, was when it went from 16 to 45 usd. In the rest of it's course it kept coming back to it's last ATH resistance. So 6 months or more to arrive at 1200 usd seems very plausible imo.
Oh wow, I sure hope BTC drops down to 600 again... Then again, it would be a perfect time to buy.
I guess we'll only know when it happens. I'm keeping my eyes in the charts the next few weeks
If it hits the 600 usd level it might again be a short spike downwards on 1 particular day.
Hi pilcrow. 600 bucks for BTC is a black swan scenario imo. I don't say it will not happen, but it will not be good for the confidence. At the moment we are in a short term sideway channel with range between $2.250 - $2.750. Ik will do a market update this weekend.
Succes with you trading/investments.
To catch the black swan : put some buy orders on different levels around 600 and above and wait for things to happen. Remember Ethereum a couple of days ago ;-)
The fundamentals changed the last couple of months. I think the basis adoption will play at faster rate in the next year and that we will see $5.000 - $10.000 within 12 months from now.
I am also in the more bullish camp. So much is happening now that I do not expect interest in blockchains in general and cryptocurrency in particular to wane suddenly.
............. but i pray it should not come true and we see 3000 quickly.
Patience, when it goes down you can buy back in cheap :-)
I already got a big bag in anticipation of Segwit.