Will the History of Bitcoin be the same as Gold? [Part 1] ($60 000 before big dump!)
Remember the opening of bitcoin futures trading on the Chicago stock exchange last year? The air was saturated with the naive euphoria that institutional investors would come to the market, which is very good for bitcoin.
But what really happened? The Chicago Board of trade played into the hands of bears and they first restrained the market, and when there were periods of fixation, in which the bitcoin rate inevitably fell.
In a universe called bitcoin, there are two opposing camps - enthusiasts and skeptics. Enthusiasts see bitcoin as a revolution that will change our interaction not only with money, but with each other and with the world as a whole.
The Manifesto of a crypto-anarchist usually says: "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain will radically change the behavior of corporations, state policy of interference in the business and personal space of citizens. Cryptocurrencies (read crypto-anarchy) in combination with emerging information markets, will create a liquid market for any product that can be described in words or expressed graphically".
Skeptics, on the other hand, consider bitcoin essentially useless. Tulip economic bubbles and financial pyramids here are the most commonly used epithets they use to reject Bitcoin's potential. To be fair, it is worth noting that speculative bubbles exist for technologies that change the world. They are often a provoking spark that takes technology to the level of a product, and causes the public to pay close attention.
What does that have to do with the future?
So far, the only way skeptics could influence the market has been through the dissemination of negative information. But with the advent of futures, skeptics can now get their money there and actively bet against bitcoin. One camp sees the future in bitcoin, the other-a useless and dangerous surrogate of money.
But now a completely new group comes to the market with its own interests - institutional investors, different in that having huge capitals, like to dictate their rules. And of course to enter the asset, they usually know how to create a favorable price for themselves, and so it has always been. Large institutional investors have been repeatedly suspected of manipulating the price of assets.
There are three groups in the battle for the future of bitcoin:
- Bitcoin believers - their motto HODL
- Skeptics and haters (owners of money) - their motto is "Bubble, pyramid, tulips, surrogates…”
- Institutional investors - their motto is "we want to buy cheaper and then sell you more and fix the profit”
Which one wins? Any man who says he knows the winner is wrong. The only truth is that all three groups have an equal chance of winning, and we are now entering an era in which open markets, which liberal economists say regulate themselves, are actually very well manipulated. The most dangerous of this group - skeptics (ie bankers) because they have long learned to bet against all without buying the underlying asset, in this case bitcoin.
What about Gold?
If there was only one asset in the world that could protect people from inflation and the unreliability of Fiat money, only gold could be such an asset. But against it is invented a clever tool that allows you to keep its prices below, despite the fact that all the gold mined ever in the world, is at the current price of no more than 3 trillion dollars, and the money supply of this most important currency is growing by 100% every year for the past 50 years. If we calculate the fair price of gold, then after 1972, when the dollar ceased to be supported by assets in this precious metal, gold rose in price only 8 times, and dollars became 50 times more. The fair price of gold should be 6 times higher than it is now.
There are striking similarities between the charts of historical gold and bitcoin prices. Not only are the major fluctuations identical, but several deep dips repeat in the same place. And here you involuntarily think, either the universe is really one big fractal, or someone uses the gold price chart as a guide for managing the prices of cryptocurrencies.
The next parts:
- Will the History of Bitcoin be the same as Gold? [Part 2]
- Will the History of Bitcoin be the same as Gold? [Part 3]