Fundamental Analysis - How to scope a project and why Technical Analysis is hogwash!

in bitcoin •  21 days ago

Fundamental analysis is key when doing a deep dive into a project and understanding its core goals and functionality


I personally swear on fundamental analysis and think more often than not, its the key way to understand the long term goal of the project. Technical Analysis is just price drivers and means absolutely nothing in my honest opinion! People can throw a chart and saw things are double bottom, teacup, mickey mouse or whatever they want, they are selling you snake oil for the most part. There are many skilled TA individuals here on steemit and other social media platforms who all called good stuff back in november-january, but how many have been on top of their calls the past 2 months and can put it 100% on TA?


I know people want to disagree, I understand, everyone has their own viewpoint and I think that's perfectly fine. We all don't live the same way and won't ever be the same. There will always be TA Maximilists and there will always be FA Maximilists, the never ending battle!

The reason why TA is hogwash (i got more of these terms)

  • The market is too volatile - The market swings can happen when a kid sneezes, and for no apparent reason
  • Alt-coins are pegged to BTC - this means that when BTC drops, usually Alts follow
  • This is not stocks/Forex - you cant replicate existing methods to a totally different market.
  • Too many people with different types of styles - you can get 1000's of charts from different traders for the same token, its like picking whatever you think looks right.

The reason why FA is better

  • News is generally the same across the board - Announcements are pretty straight forward, FUD not included!
  • Whitepapers/Yellowpapers/ tell all - Going into the depths of whitepapers make a huge difference, understanding the tech
  • Social Media tells a tale - Following the team on social media allows for updates on project as well as understanding if the team is qualified. Is the team pumping their project or talking about a commit they just did to github?
  • Partnerships - things like partnerships tell you what kind of project it is, where they plan on going, what industries they can incorporate

All these FA items allow for understanding the timing for potential gains of the project, mind you this doesn't have a 1:1 correlation as we have seen MANY main-net launches without a budge in price and many events without a budge in price. But there is more of a correlation between FA and overall long term growth than TA which is a crap shoot!

All the comments above are purely for mid or long term holdings and price changes, I think anyone putting bets on short term gains are better off risking on some low market cap coins and hoping for the best. I am not a big fan of short term gains, because just like anything you bet on, you wind up getting caught up and have bigger potential to lose in long term.

I spend hours a day research projects and looking into what makes or breaks a project, there are many risks that make me abort doing a review. I don't give this information out to my subscribers because I am not one to start FUD or to drill supporters on potential risks. I sometimes reach out to companies, advise them, ask them questions and move on. I have had companies like Quarkchain where i found some issues on their website that I reported to them and they fixed, then I did the review. There are many projects where I just spent the time and gave up when i saw no hope and didn't feel it would benefit my viewers/subscribers. This is sometimes the cause for not getting out a daily video or switching to an alternate format, moving from my initial calendar.

I get messaged about 5 projects a day to review, I try to add them to my Evernote and work through them and match against my existing list. I also try to mix up some of the videos as not to hit on competitors back to back since I sometimes get retweeted by their twitter accounts and don't want them seeing competition 24 hrs later! Common courtesy in my opinion :)

I have many more thoughts on FA and the skills needed for it, because I think it takes a certain personality and sometimes a certain background to really get into a project. I will at some point do a whitepaper live review and try to teach people how I do my breakdown and analysis , so they can do their own.

Hope you guys enjoyed!

Matty drops the #MIC

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The problem is that with FA you still got zero valuable information if you analyze most coins. How many working products are there? Not a lot. I think the best strategy is to use both FA and TA. But no patterns or elliot wave. Keep it simple. Use trend lines and volume. Thats all you need.
Like you , I do not understand why people analyze altcoins with TA. Like you said , altcoins follow bitcoin. In the end it’s still a big gamble.

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Correct, most coins you don't have live products, but that is why I made the stipulation that this is for mid or long term gains. This can't be used for short term.

A combination of fa and trend line I would do, since that's not the BS TA that has absolutely no use, like Elliot waves!

Thanks for the awesome feedback brotha!

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Followed you as well man!

I agree with your opinion. Nice to meet you. I am a friend from today. I wish you all the best and healthy. Your friend lucky7777

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Thanks lucky

Good informative and initiative content.thanks for sharing it

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Appreciate it :)

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Thanks a lot!
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