Aug 1 Bitcoin split can still happen what it means for an investor - Threat or Opportunity or Both

Hi All,
i would like to share my findings on how Segwit implementation can play out in next two to three weeks and its impact on Bitcoin and what this means for someone who is looking for investing in Bitcoin.
Disclaimer 1: I m not a financial advisor rather I am a techie. So do not use this as investing advise but instead as useful information.
Disclaimer 2: Don't read this if you want to be in Bitcoin for long term. I personally have bought 1 bitcoin and it's on my paper wallet and not to be touched for next 5 years. I have no doubt Bitcoin price will be double then what it is in a years time and much more in 5 years. So buy and hold. You don't need to worry too much about what plays out in next month(s) . You will make money even if you buy at today's price.

Please feel free to read further if you wish to time the market and also are in interested in buying a new BIT coin(if it splits). In my case, I have money reserved (enough to buy 1 bitcoin) and following research I did to understand what opportunities may lie in next two weeks to either buy Bitcoin cheaper or buy loads of new Bitcoin (e.g. bitcoin ABC) if that becomes available.

Following are the key dates and you need to check bitcoin updates/news on these dates and make your buying decision. Again this is what I am going to do. You just read this as some useful information to consider.

Scenario: 1
Segwit 2 X is locked in Well and truly with over 80 % of miners supporting it:

July 31 2017: Segwit 2 X is locked in Well and truly with over 80 % of miners supporting it:
Is answer YES?
Yes: In this case, Miners are happy, UASF guys are happy and bitmain is happy: We have avoided WAR.

1st Aug: UASF comes in play but find everyone is using Segwit hence its happy and there is no chain split. There is now only 1 bitcoin - the original with segwit activated.

What does it mean for the Investor on this day : in this scenario no chain split hence market to start going up in Aug. Bitcoin and Altcoin prices to start going up.

4th Aug: By 4th Aug all bitcoin transactions stay on main chain.

What does it mean for the Investor on thiis day : in this scenario no chain split hence market to start going up in Aug. Bitcoin and Altcoin prices to start going up

5th Aug to 5 Sep:
What does it mean for the Investor in this period Market to start going up in Aug.
Bitcoin and Altcoin prices to start going up. I'll by Bitcoin/my favorite alt coin it on 5th Aug.

Scenario: 2 Segwit 2 X is NOOOOOOT locked in due to the fact that miner did show support (intent)to lick BP 91 but did not stay true to their words and did not implement it.

July 31 2017: Did Segwit locked in ???

Answer is No: Now UASF folks are not happy and Bitmain (One of the big miner from China) is also not happy with the fact that UASF can now own the main chain and will take the name 'Bitcoin'.

Aug:1
UASF will initiate a softfork, if majority of hashpower supports UASF (segwit) then this chain is biggest and their coin is main bitcoin.
What does it mean for the Investor on this day : Do nothing as you dont know whether UASF will win or miners supporting old bitcoin chain will win.

Not from investment prospective but just as an FYI, I think following will also happen around this date. Miners who doesn’t support UASF will continue with old bitcoin chain processing but can't survive as majority of the minors will reject their transactions. Their chain will be dead.

Aug 4:
UASF (with Segwit) bitcoin will now be main BITCOIN .

What does it mean for the Investor on this day : in this scenario no chain split hence market to start going up in Aug. Bitcoin and Altcoin prices to start going up.
Again FYI: I say chain supporting old bitcoin (without segwit) will not continue to run.

Aug -5 to Sep -5:
What does it mean for the Investor in this period:

Ans: Market to start going up slowly and Bitcoin and Altcoin prices to start going up after mid August.

That's all I had to say on this. If you have read until now then I do want to thank you for that, I also hope this was some value to you. If you did like this post then please upvote/like/Share it.

Once again thank you for taking time to read it.

Regards,
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