Is Bitcoin in a Bubble?.... i have the answer!

in #bitcoin8 years ago (edited)

Hey Steemians,
I just had a nice conversation with @tomek regarding the bitocoin bubble... it came after Warren Buffet posted a prediction of the Bitcoin bubble bursting. So I wanted to make a post explaining why i think he is right, and what we can do to safe guard ourselves against it.

BTC bubble.jpg

The Hype


Firstly lets state the obvious (sorry if your only just entering the Crypto space) but Bitcoin is way over hyped for what it is. I believe when people think about the applications of a decentralized currency (independent from manipulation and corruption) the current demand is way higher than the sustainable application... the reason in my opinion is that so many people have jumped on board with bitcoin because they see it as an investment vehicle. This is really not what bitcoin was built for.
If you look back to Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper you'll see he was distinctly uncomfortable with the financial excesses that built up in the global economy and our banking system pre-GFC, and was looking to offer an alternative explanation. In other words he was interested in decentralizing the entire financial span.. not just the investment vehicles. Unless BTC becomes as accessible, transferable and trans actionable as traditional currencies then BTC is not living up to its creators expectations, and for all intensive purposes it does not perform as per expected... Meaning that people are buying into a coin that they purposely choose not to use.. its just an investment vehicle for them because they heard people are getting rich.... and guess what... if this incorrect use of the coin continues of course its going to backfire and we will end up in the same financial predicament that Satoshi Nakamoto was trying to prevent.

Why Will it Pop


As mentioned above, BTC is being exploited as an investment vehicle... for all bitcoins advantages its still (at least in its current state) a very inaccessible coin with HUGE gas prices and transaction delays. I know there are other crypto-currencies that have been developed to solve bitcoins downsides but people still choose to invest in Bitcoin because they see it as an invensment vehicle... not a usable currency. What i expect will happen is that people will begin to see bitcoin for the less superior coin and move back to FIAT or to other crypto coins... then once this happens there will be a dramatic adjustment to the price of BTC and i suppose in a way it will be the bubble popping...

Is this a bad thing


Yes and no... I think a lot of people have made good money on bitcoin, and they deserve it. The Blockchain technology will be one of the most defining technological achievements of our generation. We are for the first time in the history of Human Kind given the ability to decentralize anything... essentially removing corruption, manipulation and exploitation. Now that sounds like a good thing, but people have to understand that the BLOCKCHAIN is just a system of sharing information (kind of like an excel sheet with information, except everyone has one cell of information... and the only defining characteristic is the order for which they get put together... it is impossible for someone to manipulate the data on the sheet because they only know one cell.... noob explanation i know) and the Bitcoin is just one application built on this system. The BLOCKCHAIN will give us the ability to decentralize anything, (from government records, data storage, flight controls, AI, money, computing power, anything!) thats why its such an exciting time. Once people realize that currency isnt the only application for BLOCKCHAIN they will probably settle on a few of the better developed currencies. Some of the other currencies may have found a niche application (e.g. anonymity, borrowing, social media, etc) but for the wider application it seems the general public need a stable decentralized currency they can use in lieu of their FIAT one and BTC is anything but stable or usable.

My Advise


For all the people who have come to steemit to make money with crypto-currencies I wish you luck, but i urge you to look wider then just BTC, and wider than currency. There are so many amazing application for the blockchain, and like any new business there is so much room to grow! Think about the currency and/or technology your wanting to invest in, what is its designed purpose, are you using it for that purpose, or just to get rich quick... if so, do you suspect that is what all the other users are doing as well? What would the real demand be for that coin/company... these are such important questions to ask.

BTC-bubble.gif

The GIF and image were made by me :P and feel free to share if you like.

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great post and thoughts!

As a form of currency most cryptos are very inaccessible to the general public, although guys like Blueshyft are trying to change that with the platforms they are building.

The problem is the general public - and surprisingly the tech community (at least in Australia)- still see it mainly as currency and don't understand the value of the underlying technology outside of that.

I am on the exec council for an Australian IT channel industry association and we recently ran a conference looking at new opportunities for the IT community in Australia. The number of people who knew anything at all on blockchain other than the word bitcoin could be counted on half a hand.

If the tech community is that far behind - imagine the wider community! The potential use for BC technology - and it's evolution into technologies such as hashgraph and other distributed ledger tech is pretty exciting.

thanks for sharing
PS love the Gif!

Thankst @shellyduncan yeah your absolutely right! Wow im shocked that even the IT professionals are lagging behind in Australia. I realise that a lot of consumers require services to update them on the technology, but from my opinion there is so much potential for professional industries to jump on board and push ahead in terms of competition.

We should all be looking at this from all angles and try not to get caught up in the Crypto-craze ...

Love the picture :P says so much about the Crypto-craze blindness

Diversifying is always good. But there is a lot of FOMO going around

Awesome post man! Totally agree with you! Just wish i had found out about cryptos and Block Chains years ago

Trust me ... we are still early adopters. The masses have not caught on yet.

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