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RE: BTC - What comes next?
I've said before that exchanges like to manipulate value of currencies like Steem because the total amount of coins traded in exchange is more than the exchange has in the wallet used for withdrawals. I think Bittrex is the only exchange that has more Steem in the withdraw wallet than traded on the exchange.
When Steem is close to go moon, exchanges disable wallets so people can't transfer more coins to the exchange and that will cause avalanche effect, especially if the exchange has both Steem and Steem Dollar.
If they (the exchange) are also just wash trading, buying and selling between their own accounts, wouldn't that show up the same way?
And I have seen that with a few exchanges from time to time, but that is hardly the norm with all exchanges. The good news (for us anyways) is that if one exchange with heavy volume starts doing this, it can pull up the prices at the other more legitimate exchanges as well.
Basically I took the total number of Steem in trade orders and compared the amount to balance of the wallet address I got when I did test withdrawal from that specific exchange. It obviously only works with currencies where both sender address and account balance are public information. Some exchanges have multiple wallets, so they can move coins between them if a mass withdrawal happens and they can't shutdown withdrawals for any reason.
Interesting. That is good data to have.
In exchanges where both Steem and SBD were available, the total of both currencies did seem to be enough even for mass withdraw, so it seems they have traded between them indirectly. It is also important to remember that the calculation does not take account already fulfilled orders where the coins are sitting unused in user balances. In these cases the exchange might keep the coins in deposit wallet or even some third unknown wallet.
Does this take into account cold wallets?
It basically measures the largest single withdrawal the exchange can handle. It doesn't really matter if it is hot or cold wallet.
If there is multiple concurrent withdrawals where the total amount exceeds the balance of specific withdraw wallet, the exchange can safely split them among multiple wallets.
I see. Thanks.
very interesting data indeed