Saxo Bank analyst predicts Bitcoin price of $100,000 in 10 years based on average daily volume (ADV) required to support currency trade
Kay Van-Petersen, who predicted last December that the Bitcoin price would rise to $2,000 in 2017 (it was $754 at the time), used the following rational to calculate potential price of Bitcoin in 10 years:
- Average daily volumes (ADV) of foreign currency exchange is currently just over $5 trillion (according to the Bank for International Settlements).
- Cryptocurrencies could account for 10%, or $500 billion of that ADV in 10 years.
- Ten percent of $5 trillion is $500 billion.
- Bitcoin could have 35% of the cryptocurrency share of ADV - or $175 billion.
- Market capitalization to support $175 billion daily exchange would be $1.75 trillion (10X times the average daily volume).
- Divide $1.75 trillion by the projected 17 million Bitcoins expected to be in circulation 10 years from now and you arrive a price of just over $100,000.
Full story: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/bitcoin-price-forecast-hit-100000-in-10-years.html
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After think about this prediction for a while, if seems less far fetched. From $2,000 it would take 9 doublings - a bit less than one per year. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. What makes it a long shot is the scant possibility that Bitcoin can go through that long a period without a huge catastrophe (or two, or three or...).