Analysing the Crypto Bloodbath

My analysis on the Crypto bloodbath:

• This feels like a large drop but there were 5 drops of 40% throughout 2017. Most of those drops had legitimate reasons (i.e. Bitcoin scaling issues), this one is all based on propaganda.

• Now, 80% of the market is made up of newbies who have little experience with investing so they base most of their investing decisions on emotion, greed and fear.

• The only way Wall Street can really manipulate this market is via propaganda and fake news. Wall Street know much of the market is newbies so they know they can shake out a lot of weak hands, turning a 30% selloff into a 50% selloff.

• It started with South Korean FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt), which turned out to be largely fake news. Then China FUD, which is no different to what happened last year, looks like JP Morgan are pulling the strings at their mainstream media outlets so they can use the bonuses they were just paid to buy in lower. Then, Bitconnect (ponzi scheme I’ve been calling to collapse for months) finally collapsed.

• Understanding markets is crucial to understanding the rise and falls of cryptos. Most investors who got into Bitcoin pre-2017 rise know how heavily manipulated the stock market and every other market is, we don’t like manipulation so we look to escape that.

• The crypto market is the only true free market on earth, and because of that much of the moves are based on human emotion/human action (Free market economics is really a study of human action).

• Right now the Dow Jones is more overvalued than it was in 1929. But that is through outright manipulation. Money printing pumping up the market and a PPT (plunge protection team) in place to stop any significant falls. The stock market is not a free market, you have to understand this.

• The Crypto market right now is filled with people who do not understand how world changing the technology is, and are just in it as a get-rich-quick scheme after they saw the 6pm news talk about some guy who made millions and bought a ferrari. The people who don’t understand the technology or the market dynamics are the first people to panic sell in these times. It pays to understand.

• These bloodbaths drive people into fiat, the only permanent bear market “asset” out there, and a walking dead one at that, which is the main reason early investors got into crypto, to get out of worthless fiat.

• Human emotion doesn’t change the fundamentals of the market. Absolutely nothing has changed about the market in the last week, except that now they are cheaper to buy, although now “they’re all going to zero” according to people who are irrationally investing on emotion alone.

• When prices were double what they are now, people would have loved to buy in at half price, now is their chance but fear has taken over. That is the psychology of all markets. It’s the same reason people are buying the Dow Jones now at 26,000 but wouldn’t go near it at 1/4 of the price in 2009.

• The only thing the masses buy high and sell low is their investments.

• The learning curve in cryptos is steep, which I find to be a positive. You can learn in 12 months in cryptos what would take you 2 decades to learn in the stock market.

Anyway, I’ve predicted a lot of what has happened in this market of late, including saying Bitcoin was a screaming buy at $700 late 2016. I expect surging prices in February and March, it’s just too bad those who panic sold will miss out.

The good thing this year is many of the cryptos are releasing their platforms, products, services etc to the market which will provide fundamental backing behind the price rises. We are still in the innovator stage, Wall Street are trying to get in cheap before Early Adoption begins in a few months.

Just know that there will ALWAYS be this fake news propaganda being pushed on the market, as the battle between Cryptos and Banks/Governments plays out. Remember, when anyone says “govt is going to do this or that”, know that they need to use violence or threats of violence to do so, and there is only so long the people will cop that when they know the govt is only doing it to keep their current monopoly in place. When someone says “government is going to control the crypto market”, realise that it requires them to control the whole internet or shut down the internet. Ask yourself if the people would really allow that.

Buy people’s fear, sell people’s greed. Investing is a transfer of wealth from the impatient people to the patient people. This market has well and truly taught me that.

The smart money will be looking to enter around these levels. You make your money when you buy. Buy when there is blood on the streets.