Crypto Update 15th of February 2018
Bitcoin is up 65% in just 10 days!
This morning Bitcoin flirted with its 10k level for the first time since the nasty crash that took prices down to 6,000 USD. From this low Bitcoin is already up 65% and everybody who was brave enough to buy into prices below 8,000 USD and lower should be "in the money" quite significantly by now. Also Bitcoin has been more or less following up on my expectation. Actually with a rise above 9,700 USD my last analysis has been more than fulfilled and now needs to be updated...
- Bitcoin Daily Chart
Bitcoin is close to the big psychological number of 10,000 USD. This naturally is a resistance that should not been underestimated. As on the way down Bitcoin rebounded back up three times quite strongly from this 10k level it is now realistic to expect the same thing happening to the downside meaning Bitcoin should be bouncing off around 10,000 USD at least 2 or 3 times...
Yet the real next target/magnet sits at the 38.2%-Fibonacci level around 11,300 USD. As Bitcoin clearly established an important low it should now retrace at least the typical 38,2% of the complete down move. Reaching this target should be followed by a larger pullback or the start of the next wave down.
Slow stochastic sends a warning signal
Looking at the slow stochastic this oscillator is about to reach its overbought zone and naturally sends some first warning signals. I think anybody who was going through intense feelings of panic over the last two or three weeks should use the level between 9,800 USD and 11,300 USD to lighten up on positions until you can be sure the emotional pressure won't be too big in case Bitcoin indeed continues its correction down towards 5,000 USD and maybe even lower.... And remember all the altcoins move together with Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin continues to correct there is no escape but your whole portfolio be dragged down... You might have at least a couple of days maybe even a couple of weeks to get this done cause I suspect Bitcoin to first suck in as many bulls as possible before showing its true bear character in this corrective down cycle again.
Are we in a crypto winter?
Why do I think Bitcoin´s correction is not over yet? Because a parabolic move like the one we´ve seen in the last 12 months usually is not digested with just one eight week nasty pullback. It should rather take at least a couple of months and quite some more pain before we have a broad capitulation that will lay the foundation for the next spectacular up-wave. I might be wrong but looking at Bitcoins history thats exactly what always happened. It always came back towards its long-term means. Therefore we should be in some kind of crypto winter for the foreseeable future. Not being overexposed and holding enough liquidity for buying opportunities at much lower levels is the way to go. Also make sure that the altcoins that you are holding can indeed make it through this winter...
Disclaimer: I am personally long Bitcoin therefore I am biased! Please do your own due diligence.
- Steem Daily Chart
Steem continues to be one of my favorite altcoins. Besides the decent use case plus nearly 1 million user already and the fact that Steem remains the most active blockchain a quick research also shows that www.steemit.com is about to move into the top 1,000 websites worldwide!
With these impressive numbers the cryptocurrency Steem still seems to be very cheap and a mid- to longer-term buy. Over the next couple of months you should use any chance to buy into Steem on weakness between 2.90 - 3.50 USD. Looking at the chart its unlikely that Steem will drop below 2.50 USD anymore. If it did the uptrend of the last 12 months would be broken and a pullback towards the next support level around 1.70 - 1.90 USD would be the consequences.
BUY Steem below 3.50 USD and plan to hold it for at least 12-24 months. There is no stop recommended so you´re risking the whole position. Steem is trading among other exchanges on Bittrex and Binance.
Disclaimer: I am personally long Steem therefore I am biased! Please do your own due diligence.