Trump? Harris? What Is the Market Saying? By Gregory Mannarino
Trump? Harris?
What Is the Market Saying?
By Gregory Mannarino Traderschoice.net
“The Debt Market Is Always Right.”
On Wall Street there is an old adage which goes like this; the debt market is always right. With that, and as of right now, the debt market is telling us that a Trump Presidency is going to happen.
The Debt Market?
The debt market is the largest aspect of the overall market by exponents. The debt market, also known as the bond or credit market, consists of fixed income securities, and includes bonds, notes, and bills.
Regarding the stock market, it is forward-looking.
What this means is the stock market “prices in” future events. Largely, the stock market is driven by speculation on what the most likely outcome is going to be moving forward. With that, and as an example, once the stock market prices in a particular event, it is generally followed by a “sell the news” moment. “Selling the news” is simply profit taking, as the market was pricing in the likely outcome.
The stock markets of the world, the currency markets, real estate markets, etc., ALL derive value from what is happening in the debt market. Understanding that, essentially every other market outside of the debt market itself, therefore becomes a DERIVATIVE of debt market price action. Which means that markets outside of the debt market derive value from debt market action. What happens in the debt market has a ripple effect upon the price action of every other market.
Immediately after Biden dropped out of the Presidential selection, THE FIRST THING that I looked at was the US 10-year yield, (the US 10-year Treasury Note is the benchmark). The next place I looked was the US Dollar Index, (central bank issued currencies are units of debt). For several weeks prior to the assassination attempt on Trump, I said publicly multiple times that a Trump Presidency was going to happen. I based my statement on a Trump Presidency solely on what I was personally observing in both the debt and currency markets. Immediately after Biden dropped out, the 10-year yield DID NOT MOVE. Moreover, the relative dollar strength FELL. The following day, world stock markets put on gains. AND Bitcoin also rallied.
Even the mainstream media is referring to recent market action as “The Trump Trade.”
Whomever is selected as the next figurehead/President, regarding the market, two things WILL happen.
A further loss of dollar purchasing power.Larger asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, (debt purchases to keep rates artificially suppressed).
The Wild Card
Bitcoin.
Trump has repeatedly called himself The Bitcoin President. He has gone on to say that he will support the crypto space. Trump is a major positive for crypto, and especially Bitcoin. In the event that Trump IS NOT selected, this would be a short-term major blow to Bitcoin and the crypto space.
Further on the markets.
The current price-action distortions which currently exist in world markets across the spectrum, are a direct result of central bank manipulation of world debt and currency markets.
This mechanism has gone far beyond anything which has ever been seen before.