Can Bitcoin Replace Gold ?

It’s relatively scarce, recognized across borders, and can be held anonymously. And unlike physical gold, which needs to be kept in a safe, Bitcoin codes can be kept on a computer or even a piece of paper.

This makes Bitcoin a potential threat to gold bulls, one that has clearly caught the attention of the industry. The World Gold Council, an industry group representing gold miners, issued a report this year arguing that “cryptocurrencies are no substitute for gold” and won’t eliminate the need for the metal even if they do become a mainstream financial asset. Gold, the report notes, has the blessing of regulators, is less volatile than Bitcoin, and is a well-understood part of a balanced investment portfolio.

Still, as the price of Bitcoin soared 1,400% last year, there were indications that crypto had stolen some thunder—and perhaps some assets—from gold. Demand for gold bars and coins in the U.S. fell in 2017, and remained weak through the first quarter of 2018, according to the World Gold Council.

In an interview on Thursday, Louney said that the inverse correlation between Bitcoin and gold has continued this year and even strengthened somewhat, but it remains relatively weak and unreliable.

Bitcoin could “pull some marginal flows from gold,” at least among people who view both gold and Bitcoin as forms of “stateless currencies,” he said. “But when we look deeper into the data, there’s little if any evidence of a causal relationship between the two,” making it hard to use the price action of one to predict the value of the other.

“There are a subset of investors who do see the two as interchangeable, but I don’t think that’s a broad market view at this point.”

With the cryptocurrency tumbling 55% so far this year, the argument for Bitcoin as a gold alternative—the metal is down 8% this year—may have dimmed a bit.

Gold tops Bitcoin on other metrics, too. The total value of all the gold in the world is about $7 trillion, and $250 billion changes hands every day on average, the World Gold Council says. There’s about $115 billion worth of Bitcoin outstanding, and about $6 billion changes hands each day, according to CoinMarketCap.com.

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