I like your thesis but even if you're complete wrong, bitcoin will hit $23k in the coming months. More likely if your thesis is correct, we'll see BTC at almost $50k (I'll bet 10 bucks it hits $48k by the fall). My counter argument for a much higher value is that the altcoins have created additional wealth in the system which will be transfered to BTC when the inflow happens. ie; the money that left BTC into alt coins is now 50 times more valuableable. Even if a liquidity squeeze happens, it's still going to push BTC to $50k.