LONG ETHUSD - Q1 2018 best buy time

When I concluded the ETH analysis above from 2015, I almost fell off my chair. In my opinion it presents the best risk reward opportunity in the cryto space in Q1 2018. Focus on the bottom ETHBTC chart as this is the real driver of ETHUSD

Some background

Those of you that have followed me for a while know that I initially got into ETH back in January of 2017 and have tracked it closely during that period.
Over the past 6 months I have focused my analysis on ETH (and other coins) relative to BTC.
Whilst my base currency is USD (not BTC), my view is that if I am long crypto, I want to make sure I am skewed to the over performing coins.

I focus on the long term trends. I'm not a daytrader. I'm a swing trader.

I have since spent time drilling down even further into the long term trend of ETH, using Bittrex data that goes back to 2015.

History

I have plotted ETHUSD and ETHBTC over the past 2.5 years using a log scale. From this you can see:

ETHBTC

• there have been two large bull impulses followed by two large bear impulses
• both bull impulses lasted approximately 150 days and produced an uplift of 2000%
• both bear impulses resulted in an 80% correction and both were longer than the bull impulses

ETHUSD

• there have been two large bull impulses followed by two large consolidation phases and these, unsurprisingly, share the same characteristics of ETHBTC
• Bull impulses up between 4500-7200% in approx 150 days
• Bear impulses down approx 70%

If history repeats itself

• we have approx 90 days of this bull impulse left and probably are in the middle of the third ETHBTC wave
• the third wave will reach to about 80% higher than the top of the previous wave 2 bear impulse (0.11 increase 80% to 0.20) followed by a quick but aggressive 4th wave pullback to around 0.11 again.
• ETHBTC will finish out with a 5th wave up to 0. 5-0 .6 BTC 12.94% and ETHUSD 11.57% to around $8k-$9k.

Scenario testing
I have more comfort in the ETHBTC price achieving its target than the ETHUSD 11.57% price. However, if history repeats itself we would see ETH becoming the King of Cryptos and so we can compare some of the performance we have seen in BTC 12.94% to what we might expect to see in ETH. So let's look at where the scenario would place us once it has played out by the middle of May (approx 70 days):

ETHBTC at 0.5
ETHUSD at $8,000
BTCUSD must be at $16,000

Mkcaps:
ETH $775bn
BTC $280bn

ETH previous high mkcap ($1,450) : $140bn
BTC previous high mkcap ($20,000) : $340bn

Therefore in approximately 90 days this would price ETH market cap at:

• x2 BTCs all time high
• x5 ETHs all time high
• x10 ETHs current

Time it took

• BTC to increase x5 from $4k to $20k: 75 days
• ETH to increase x10 to its $400 high: 80 days

Summary

History often repeats itself, although often the scale and timelines can be quite different, in the case of ETHBTC we have had two periods remarkably similar and a new one which could be unfolding to be the same. I'm not saying we are necessarily going to repeat these exact figures as even though the scenario testing suggests they are achievable, they do look high. However, if we can even get close to repeating a similar pattern, this in no doubt for me puts ETH as the buy of Q1 2018!

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