Bitcoin Thoughts

in #bitcoin3 years ago

Bitcoin Thoughts

  • I think the price will trade within a range for a time being since it has had a little bit of a correction from hitting 19k

  • I don’t think there’s a bubble because too many people are saying “bubble” usually bubbles require an overwhelming mania... I did think the price movement last week was a bit irrational especially on Friday but it seem to have corrected

  • Bitcoin futures will allow better price discovery and market stability so I expect the volatility to dampen a little bit as the futures market to develop. This is a good thing because of the value stabilizes then bitcoin can go back developing itself as a medium of exchange beyond exchanging for other cryptos (which people totally underestimate the value of that one function alone)

  • This means volatility of altcoin will probably increase as people chase large trades, a lot of people will be providing a lot of liquidity to a lot of useless cryptos (although many will be buying large amount of BTC and ETH so they can trade these altcoins on exchanges that alone will provide substantial liquidity to BTC/ETHat current levels)

  • I still think the Best long term plays are diversifying among privacy coins (Monero, Aeon, Dash, Zcash) and Ethereum alternatives (NEO, WAVES, Bitshares, etc.) as I can see the value in at least one player in each category finding real demand and application.

  • I’m staying out of ICOs until I see a final product of an existing one that shows the value of the ICO model. (I guess Steemit and Lbry do that, but I’m more interest in seeing if something like Civic or BAT create their product which would be killer)

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Yeah, I don't Bitcoin is really in a bubble either... I think we're in a period of tremendous "discovery" by a wider and wider part of the general public, and the prices rises are simply a reflection of more and more people learning about cryptos and getting into the markets. Unlike "dot-com stocks" where it was existing stock market traders trading a new commodity, here we have actual new money coming in. For each person who sells, there are two ready to buy.

I am also staying far far away from any alt coins that don't have a real economic reason for existing. Simply saying "blockchain" doesn't make something a viable project.

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