Consensus didn't "fail" to rally BTC. It had the exact effect it was supposed to have!
Consensus 2018 came and went and BTC didn't rise. Not during, not after. Only a few days later.
Many were expecting that BTC would soar during Consensus. I mean, that large number of crypto and blockchain enthusiasts has to mean very positive sentiment in the market, right?
Not quite, or at least, not in the way you think.
Tom Lee attributed the failure of Consensus to push BTC up to the following:
- Lack of clarity on regulatory discussions
- Muted institutional custodial announcement
We're sorry, but we call BS on that one.
Remember when Trump was expected to make an announcement on the Iran deal a couple of weeks back? Oil price soared before the guy said anything. And, when he did speak to the press (the first time), Oil prices tanked, even though he didn't really say anything to suggest any change of policy toward Iran, whether status quo or negative.
That was a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news, no matter what the news is" example.
Take a look at the chart below:
From May 12th to May 14th (start date for Consensus), BTC rallied. From the 14th to the 18th (Consensus ended on the 16th), BTC tanked. People bought the rumor and sold the news, even though the vast majority probably didn't know what ACTUALLY happened at Consensus. It wasn't because people were disappointed in regulatory discussions or anything else.
So ya, that's a good reminder to all of us. In many cases, it doesn't matter as much what actually happens, what matters is market sentiment and mass psychology.
Reference article:
http://bitcoinist.com/tom-lee-explains-why-consensus-failed-to-spark-the-bitcoin-rally/
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