It is nice to read a well though out though (no pun intended).
I agree with If Bitcoin is used as just a store of value ... we should see their value going up during recessions and down during boom times...on the condition that bitcoin economy is a smaller part of the whole economy and most prefer "cash out" to more useful currency during boom times.
However I can not agree with "If they're used only as a means of exchange then we should see the opposite."