RE: When to Buy in New Era of Cryptocurrency Regulation
Hey crypto folks,
I see the following headwinds for cryptocurrency this year:
regulation - it is coming, all governments seem to getting very serious on this matter. In the long run it could be good for the market (unless they outright ban crypto), but in the short term it could have quite negative consequences for valuations as, at the very least, it should put an end to wash trading, pump & dumps, etc, which keep prices artificially high
altcoin crash - there are over 1500 altcoins. The vast majority of these do not have a valid business model. Their only reason for being is speculation. Like the dotcom bubble, these will probably crash to nothing.
stock market crash and possible recession caused by this. Has anyone looked at the S&P 500 lately? It looks like bitcoin in December when things were going nuts. What happens to the cryptomarkets when the stock market is crashing and some people are potentially losing their jobs? I am guessing that this would hit crypto hard. Crypto has never had to deal with a recession. People tend not to gamble with their money when they don't know where their finances will be in the near future.
bitfinex/tether crash - we all know that this is a possibility. No need to say any more on this potentially dire eventuality.
I would imagine that any one of these on their own could hit crypto prices by 50%. I am not saying that we are going to see all four this year. But we will probably see a few at least, which would hit crypto hard.
Who knows the future, but we could easily see markets down 80% from where they currently are. I am hopeful that at some time in the future (2019?) things might have started to pick up. But I am, I think justifiably, bearish for crypto in 2018.
What does the hive mind think? I would really appreciate your views.